In a news release on Friday morning, China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported its economy grew 5% in 2024 from a year ago, meeting its official target.
Analysts polled by Reuters had expected China’s full-year GDP growth to come in at 4.9%, just shy of the official target of around 5% — which analysts had said was ambitious.
Helen Qiao, lead economist for Greater China at Bofa Global Research, told Bloomberg TV that China’s GDP numbers were “pretty cool. “
Chinese resolution manufacturers have still published their objective of expansion of GDP by 2025.
Markets got a slight bump from China’s positive GDP release, with the benchmark CSI 300 Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index both closing 0.3% higher on Friday.
In its data release, the NBS referenced some of the challenges the country is facing.
“We will have to be aware that the negative effects brought through an external environment increase, internal applications are insufficient, sure that corporations have difficulties in production and operation, and the economy faces difficulties and challenges,” said the NBS.
Analysts attribute China’s better-than-expected GDP growth to a strong fourth quarter, notably in retail spending.
China’s economy grew 5. 4% in the fourth quarter that a year ago, greater than 5% of the expected analysts, after the competitive measures unleashed in September.
Last year, the Government deployed measures to stimulate internal consumption, adding a program of the client products industry, adding appliances.
Retail sales reached 4. 5 billion yuan in December. For the fourth quarter, retail sales greater than 3. 8% to the fastest of the year.
Annual retail sales greater than 3. 5%, much decrease that the expansion of 7. 2% in 2023.
The Chinese economy continued to be supported through its exports, which caused the country’s industry surplus to only 1 dollars.
In December, commercial production rose 6. 2% as factories scrambled to honor U. S. President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration opening on Jan. 20. Trump has threatened to impose a 60% tariff on all Chinese goods, which would raise prices for importers.
However, the feeling of the client in China has been mediocre. People do not spend enough, and some industry for less expensive products.
“The key question is if we can see consumer confidence bottom out and begin a meaningful recovery. Pessimism has grown quite entrenched as of late, and it will take a lot of effort to break out of the doldrums,” wrote Darren Tay, the head of Asia Pacific country risk at BMI.
The Chinese economy has pandemic recovery problems. It faces many challenges, adding a genuine heritage crisis of several years, the best unemployment for other young people and deflation.
In the long term, China is grappling with a demographic crisis. The country’s population fell for a third consecutive year in 2024.
Some analysts are calling for caution on China’s uneven two-speed economic growth.
“While economic conditions are improving overall, not every sector is benefiting, underscoring potential challenges in job creation,” wrote Dilin Wu, a research strategist at the online trading platform Pepperstone.
But bad news could turn into good news for China, Wu added, as an increasing number of challenges may prompt additional stimulus measures during the country’s annual parliamentary meetings in March.
Despite the expansion in China’s GDP last year, the accuracy and quality of official knowledge published across the country raise long-standing concerns.
Gao Shanwen, an eminent Chinese economist, recently said that official Chinese GDP figures would possibly be wrong and superior to genuine expansion figures.
Rhodium Group analysts wrote in a December report that the official knowledge of China should be read in the context of an implicit “bias”, while Beijing highlights a safe and solid knowledge, while other more negative knowledge.
Notably, China has reported only a modest slowdown in genuine pre-Shovel securities GDP expansion, from 5. 2% in 2023 to 4. 8% on an annual basis through the third quarter of 2024, but the government has introduced a number of a number of competitive recovery measures, such as a 10 billion yuan refinancing program for local government debt and a mechanism for the inventory market directly.
“No government adjusts economic policy like that to counter a minor slowdown,” the analysts wrote.
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