A fire at a Russian warehouse destroyed components for hundreds of Shahed-136 kamikaze drones according to a report yesterday on Ukraine’s Military Intelligence (GUR) official page. They do not say how the fire started, but this is one of many such fires in Russia caused by sabotage, incendiary drones or other means. The report states that the warehouse contained the components for 400 Shaheds, all of which were destroyed, suggesting detailed knowledge of the event.
The report also mentions that the components included thermal imaging cameras – a capability not previously known, which, in combination with Starlink units also found on Shaheds, suggests Russia has developed a more capable and dangerous version of the attack drone.
Shahed-136 is a one-way attack drone developed by Iran, with a seven-foot wingspan and carrying a warhead of around 100 pounds to over 600 miles. (A range of up to 1500 miles has been claimed but there is no evidence for this). The piston-driven propeller engine gives it a cruising speed of about 115 mph and earns it the nickname ‘moped’ or ‘lawnmower.’
Initially imported from Iran, Russia set about producing and then producing Shaheds in a gigantic new factory in Alabuga, 1,000 kilometers east of Moscow, equipped with a smart workforce. market: a combination of local academics and, curiously, African women tricked into coming to Russia. with promises of employment in the hotel industry.
From zero in 2022, Russia has steadily ramped up Shahed production and is now turning out some two thousand one-way attack drones each month according to Ukrainian intelligence. It is worth noting that some of the drones reported as Shaheds may be decoys or smaller low-cost Russian or Chinese drones.
The continued drone onslaught has inflicted huge damage on Ukraine, with three quarters of the electricity infrastructure destroyed by drone and missiles attacks. But the defenses have steadily become more capable, and in November brought down some 95% of the attacking drones with gunfire, missiles, and, increasingly, electronic warfare jamming.
But as the defense evolves, so does the attack.
The Shaheds we see now are generations ahead of those first seen in Ukraine little more than two years ago. Developments include ‘stealth’ coatings making them more difficult to detect, and a series of new warheads tailored to specific targets, and data modems with SIM cards to transmit data via the Ukrainian cellphone network.
Ukraine is now deploying cellular hunting drones armed with automatic anti-aircraft guns to shoot down. . . [+] Shaheds.
The original Shahed had fundamental satellite navigation, and Russian-made versions have been upgraded with a military-grade Komet navigation unit that is resistant to interference and spoofing. However, the cover presented through this unit turns out to have been defeated when the Ukrainian Air Service Force reports that an increasing number of Shaheds are being shot down via electronic warfare or redirected to Russia. It is not unexpected that Russia is interested in Shaheds that do not feature satellite navigation at all.
Previously, some Shahed were seen with essential video cameras. The GUR report that they are now thermal cameras could imply that they are a visual navigation formula that works at night, detecting terrain features in the dark through their heat signatures. Optical navigation is not that unusual since interference compromises GPS. Earlier this month, US manufacturer Red Cat announced a partnership with Palantir to bring this capability to its tactical quadcopters, demonstrating that the technique is viable for even the smallest drones.
This ability would make the Shahed immune to interference, but the cameras would possibly be there for a reason.
Images from a downed Shahed claimed to show a Starlink satellite communications unit.
In September, Ukrainian media outlet Defense Express reported on the discovery of crashed Shaheds, equipped with Starlink satellite communications. This enables long-range communications, allowing the Russians to track their drones in real time and which ones are shot down before reaching their targets, as well as redirect them in flight.
Obviously, Russia’s use of American-made Starlink is highly illegal, however, many social media posts show Russian troops receiving Starlinks, most likely through agents in third countries.
Combined with a thermal camera, the satellite link would allow the operator to accurately target express targets, adding those with an apparent warmth signature, such as force generation equipment. With real-time communication, Shaheds can attack moving targets, such as ships, and precision targets, such as air defenses. They can also evaluate the effect of past attacks.
Taking down Shaheds after they are launched is a completely defensive approach and there is always the risk that some will get through. Even at 95% success, dozens of Shaheds still find their targets each month, and many more crash into inhabited areas. The best solution is to knock out the threat ‘left of launch,’ that is , destroy them on the ground before they become a threat.
That is why the Alabuga chimney is important. The site has already been attacked by Ukrainian drones. Whether the fire started through agents inside the facility, a long-range sabotage group, or stealthy attack drones, suggests a need to focus more on fighting Russian drones at the source.
Ukraine is dramatically increasing its long-range strike arsenal, with a combination of new attack drones, ‘rocket drones’ and cruise missiles; the distinction between drone and cruise missile has blurred into invisibility. These weapons will only make a strategic impact if they can be directed to where they do most good. That fact that the GUR now knows exactly which buildings on the Alabuga site need to be targeted suggests that there will be more fires and explosions in the coming months as the war of drone versus drone becomes increasingly vital.
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