The right-wing Alternative for Germany (AfD) is gaining attention among Americans after Elon Musk endorsed it last week, amid its growing popularity in the European nation. Newsweek tested Germany’s chances of winning the upcoming German elections.
Musk’s message that “only the AfD can save Germany” came after the collapse of the German coalition government, when Chancellor Olaf Scholz issued a vote of confidence, triggering early elections in February.
Only the AfD can save Germany https://t. co/Afu0ea1Fvt
Meanwhile, Germany is still reeling from an attack at a Christmas market in Magdeburg, where Saudi Arabian national Taleb Al Abdulmohsen allegedly drove a car into the crowd, killing at least five people and injuring more than 200 others last Friday.
The AfD became the first party considered by many to be far-right to come out victorious in a state election in Germany since the World War II, when it won Brandenburg in September.
While most Germans view the party unfavorably, the AfD’s current approval rating of 19% is what was recorded in eight years of Pew Research Center polling.
At the same time, other German parties have noticed a drop in their popularity: The popularity of Scholz’s Social Democratic Party (SPD) fell from 67% in 2022 to 39% this year, according to the Pew Research Center. recent fall of the government.
“There is almost 0% that the AfD will win first position in the general election on February 23 and an even greater decrease that it will win an absolute majority,” said Eric Langenbacher, senior researcher and director of Society, Culture and Politics. the German American Institute program told Newsweek.
“Of course, there are always the ‘unknown unknowns’ and the consequences of the recent attack on the Christmas market in Magdeburg in the deeper electoral context of widespread concerns about migration and integration might boost the AfD a little,” he added.
The party currently has a 19 percent voting rate, according to Politico’s latest vote on the general election, updated Dec. 16.
While the AfD is ahead of the SPD (17%), it is evidently the Christian Democratic Union of Germany (CDU)/Christian Social Union (CSU) that gets 31% in the polls.
Prediction market platform Polymarketplace estimates that the AfD has a 14. 3% chance of winning, while the CDU/CSU has an 85% chance.
While those numbers seem unlikely that the AfD will win Germany’s Feb. 23 election, the party appears poised to gain more federal influence than ever before.
AfD co-chair Alice Weidel talks about Germany’s “main parties” (the CDU/CSU alliance and the SPD) working with her party.
Earlier this year, she said: “We call on the CDU/CSU and the FDP to finally accept their civic responsibility and to reach an agreement with us. After all, we represent millions of voters.”
These two parties have ruled out governing with the AfD. Before the September elections, in the face of the AfD’s growing popularity, CDU leader Friedrich Merz reiterated this commitment, declaring: “Our word is valid. We will do it. “
Newsweek contacted the CDU, via email, to ask if this is still the case.
Langenbacher said: “Post-war Germany has had coalition governments, so the question is whether the established parties would agree to govern with this rival party.
“At the moment, the answer is no, due to an informal firewall that hinders collaboration with the AfD. It is imaginable that in the long term the CDU/CSU’s preference for governing conservatively will erode this norm, but that will not happen in 2025”.
The party gained help for its anti-immigration and pro-border security stances after the 2015 refugee crisis. It promotes national security and identity, opposing globalism and multiculturalism.
But he has been classified as far-right and is lately being monitored through Germany’s domestic intelligence agency, the BfV, on suspicion of extremism, which the AfD says is a political way to discredit the party.
In January, a news report revealed that figures had attended an assembly where extremists discussed the deportation of millions of immigrants, some of them with German citizenship, prompting mass protests against the far right.
One of the AfD’s best-known figures, Björn Höcke, was charged this year with using a Nazi slogan – he denies these accusations.
AfD supporters generally have worries about the German economy, are unsatisfied with the state of the country’s democracy and have a negative view of the European Union, according to the Pew Research Center.
Newsweek has reached out to the AfD, via email, for comment.
Updated 12/24/24 at 3:36 AM m. ET: This article has been updated with comment from Eric Langenbacher.
Jordan King is a Newsweek reporter founded in London, UK. It focuses on human interest stories in Africa and the Middle East. She has extensively covered the civil war in the Democratic Republic of Congo, police brutality and poverty in South Africa, and gender issues. founded violence around the world. Jordan joined Newsweek in 2024 from The Evening Standard and has previously worked at Metro. co. uk. She graduated from Kingston University and also worked in documentaries. Jordan can be reached by sending an email electrónico. j. king@newsweek. com. Languages: English.