Former President Donald Trump has taken a hit in the polls in three critical states, after new insights showed Vice President Kamala Harris leading in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin.
Since President Joe Biden withdrew from the 2024 race and endorsed Harris to succeed him, the polls have changed significantly. While maximum polling knowledge in the past showed Trump leading Biden nationally and in key states, the scenario has now changed: Harris appears to have merit nationally, as well as in some critical states.
Because of the electoral school system, several battleground states have an undue influence over presidential elections. Candidates can lose the popular vote nationally and still win if they gather enough states that are not solidly Republican or Democratic. In this cycle, if Harris can win all the solidly Democratic states Biden won in 2020 and also win victories in the swing states of Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, she will be able to win the Electoral College.
Ballot data released Saturday morning through the New York Times/Siena College, ranked the most accurate polling institute in America by ABC News voting research site 538, showed Harris leading Trump by four percent in the three swing states. vice president with 50% in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, while the former Republican president with 46%.
The survey included 619 voters in Michigan, 693 in Pennsylvania and 661 in Wisconsin. The state’s margins of error were plus or minus 4. 8, 4. 2 and 4. 3 percentage points, respectively. The elections took place from August 6 to 9.
Notably, when the Times ran a vote between Biden and Trump from April 28 to May 9, the data showed the president trailing the former president on three issues in Pennsylvania and one point in Wisconsin. Biden had a one-point lead in Michigan.
When contacted for comment Saturday morning, the Trump campaign sent the Trafalgar Group’s Newsweek polls released Friday; It showed the former president leading in all three battleground states, as well as Nevada, North Carolina and Arizona. Trafalgar Group is described by 538 analysts as a “partisan” pollster affiliated with the Republican Party.
Later Saturday, Trump’s crusader sent Newsweek an X-rated message from David Axelrod, a political representative and former aide to President Barack Obama, who raised perspectives with the Times’ new polling data.
Newsweek reached out to Harris’ campaign email for comment Saturday morning.
At a press convention Thursday at his Mar-a-Lago hotel in Florida, Trump said he “leads on a lot of things. ” He continually disparaged Harris’ campaign, calling the vice president “incompetent” and “unintelligent. ” Harris and his running mate, Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz, called Trump and his running mate, Ohio Sen. JD Vance, “weird. ”
Poll averages (538) lately show Harris narrowly ahead of Trump in Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. In Michigan, Harris has 44. 9%, compared to Trump’s 42. 9%. In Pennsylvania, the vice president has 45. 5% and the former president 44. 6%. In Wisconsin, averages show Harris at 46. 2%, compared to 44. 4% for Trump.
Update, 10/08/2024 at 11:11 a. m. ET: This article was updated with David Axelrod’s comments on social media.
Update, 10/8/5:11 p. m. ET: More has been added.
Jason Lemon is a weekend editor at Newsweek based in Brooklyn, New York. Before taking on the role of editor, Jason’s reporting focused on United States politics and foreign affairs. He joined Newsweek in 2018 and in the past worked as a founding editor at a Middle Eastern media startup called StepFeed. He also worked for a year as a contributor to The Atlanta Journal-Constitution and has written bylines for The Christian Science Monitor, The Palm Beach Post, Al Fanar Media, and A Magazine. He is a graduate of the American University of Beirut in Lebanon and Andrews University in Michigan. You can contact Jason by emailing j. lemon@newsweek. com. Languages: English, Spanish, French and Levantine Arabic
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