by Andrew Prokop
Kamala Harris entered the presidential race just over two weeks ago as an underdog.
Since then, the mood of Democrats has been. . . and Harris’ polls have taken a step forward. But the scenario has not advanced as far as one might think. At least not yet.
According to polls, Trump is no longer the clear favorite to win, but Harris also did not take a clear lead. Polls, especially in swing states, recommend an incredibly close race that could go either way.
Let’s be clear: this is a fundamental improvement for Democrats, compared to President Joe Biden’s numbers.
Late last year, Trump took a sustained lead over Biden in polls nationally and in nearly every key state. For Democrats, erasing that lead is a big problem, and it’s contributing to turmoil in Trump’s crusade lately. Trump’s team thought it was a sure thing to beat Biden, but now it’s not so certain.
But a Harris victory isn’t certain either. This is partly because, due to the magic of the Electoral College, it is not the national polls that give the result, but the swing states. And the scenario in the swing states is murky.
Last week’s Bloomberg/Morning Consult polls were encouraging for Harris, showing her ahead in Michigan and, to a lesser extent, in Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada. The problem is that they also gave Trump leads in Pennsylvania and North Carolina, as well as a tie in Georgia. If those polls were accurate, the election would depend entirely on the final results in Georgia.
And recent polls of swing states (from Fox, Public Policy Polling, and Emerson) have shown that Trump still holds a small lead in the most swing states.
It’s conceivable that meager polls in swing states have been slow to catch up with Harris’s national vibe of advancement, and a series of new polls showing Harris gets transparent merit is imminent.
But in 2016 and 2020, Trump fared particularly better in key Electoral College states than Democrats (and most pollsters) had hoped for, enough to thwart Hillary Clinton’s victory in the popular vote and counter Biden’s as much as possible. Harris’ biggest challenge will be saving him again.
The last two weeks have gone as well as anyone could have hoped for Democrats, and much more than many experts predicted. With Biden’s confusing impeachment proceedings complete, Harris was thankfully welcomed as his replacement. Democrats now have a real chance of winning again. Although he is an outgoing vice president, Harris is arguably the new man, a 59-year-old woman of color who has never been president before, unlike Trump, a 78-year-old former president. He claims be the candidate for change.
Harris also got some pretty positive media coverage. This is in part simply because things have been going objectively well for him so far. But he also benefits from what is known as the “honeymoon” phenomenon, in which a newly augmented political leader receives a positive reception. press just for the novelty of it. And the challenge with honeymoons is that they eventually end.
For example: When Harris ran for the No. 1 Democratic presidency in 2019, her first debate, when she criticized Biden’s 1970s opposition to school bus desegregation in a moment that went viral, was incredibly successful, allowing him to soar in the polls.
But as the crusade progressed, he struggled to maintain that momentum. A few days later, he claimed that his perspectives on fashionable bus politics were none other than Biden’s. Later, he struggled to expand a coherent fitness policy. And his crusade “has become a hotbed of drama and slander,” according to CNN. Despite everything, he dropped out of the race before voting began.
This time, Harris masterfully played the inside game by rallying parties for his campaign, drew enthusiastic crowds and raised a gigantic amount of money. But there are other things he hasn’t done yet. For example: he hasn’t given an interview or press conference since Biden’s departure, which Republicans are complaining about. His choice of a vice-presidential candidate can also give rise to controversy.
Democrats can only hope that the honeymoon will get bigger in another three months. But inevitably, debatable questions will defend Harris, as it does all presidential candidates. The media’s policy on the matter will be at least a little less positive. The crusade’s customers will depend on how well it survives the storms ahead.
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