Ukraine is bracing for a “huge” Russian reaction as Kiev forces push further into the Kursk border region, but it is still unclear what exactly that retaliation will look like.
“Russia will feel the need to give a very difficult response, something huge, to prove to the world that it is omnipotent and that something like Kursk will go unpunished,” he told the Times of London on Sunday. an anonymous high-ranking Ukrainian defense source.
Questions revolve around Moscow’s most likely reaction after normal Ukrainian forces crossed from the country’s northeastern Sumy region to Kursk last Tuesday. The Ukrainians gained territory temporarily as Russia scrambled to react to the maximum significant advance on its territory since the start. of a full-scale war just two and a half years ago.
Russia’s public messages insisted that Moscow had halted the Ukrainian advance, but Russian government reports on Sunday indicated that fighting continued around villages up to 20 miles from the Ukraine border, Obshchii Kolodez added.
On Monday, the Russian Defense Ministry said Ukraine had attempted to “break through” around Kauchuk, a village just east of Obshchii Kolodez in central Russian territory, over the past day. Moscow said it destroyed one tank and eight Bradley infantry fighters. automobiles supplied throughout the United States. Newsweek can independently determine this report.
Images widely shared on social media appear to show Ukrainians tearing down Russian flags in Kursk villages, some replaced by Kyiv’s yellow and blue flag. Moscow also launched an “anti-terrorist operation” in several border regions as part of efforts to push back Ukrainian troops. It is run through the Federal Security Service (FSB), the main successor to the Soviet-era KGB.
The Institute for the Study of War, a U. S. think tank, said Sunday that Ukraine has most likely advanced west and northwest toward Kursk in recent days.
Alexei Smirnov, acting governor of the Kursk region, said Monday in a meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin that Ukraine had taken 28 settlements and that 2,000 citizens were missing from those villages.
About 121,000 more people have been evacuated from the Kursk border areas, Smirnov said. Vyacheslav Gladkov, governor of the neighboring Belgorod region, said on Monday that the regional government had begun evacuating citizens near the border.
The Russian government “has been seriously embarrassed, and the loss of territory and evacuation of civilians will be seen in Russia as evidence that ‘they can protect themselves,'” said Matthew Savill, director of military science at the Royal United Services Institute. RUSI ), a London-based think tank.
Putin called the operation a “large-scale provocation” last week and said Monday that Moscow will have to “expel the enemy from our territories,” according to a Kremlin statement.
Kiev officials have largely avoided commenting on the cross-border advance, although Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky spoke on Saturday of “actions aimed at expanding the war to the territory of the aggressor. “
The precise objectives of the operation remain unclear; Some have speculated that the advance toward Kursk could simply put Ukraine in a greater negotiating position. Or it may simply emphasize the proximity of the war to the Russian population while forcing Moscow to withdraw its resources from the fiercest battle front in the East.
“The goal is to expand the enemy’s positions, inflict maximum casualties and destabilize the situation in Russia, because they cannot reach their own border,” an anonymous Ukrainian official told Agence France-Presse.
Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on Sunday that the raid was aimed at intimidating Russian civilians and that it “made no sense from the army’s point of view. “
“The business reaction of the Russian armed forces will not be long in coming,” Zakharova added in a post on the Telegram messaging app.
The retaliation “will be limited to 4 missiles,” the source told The Times. Russia could fire “hundreds” of ballistic and cruise missiles, as well as unleash the infamous Shahed kamikaze drones that have threatened Ukraine since the early months of the war. , the source suggested.
Ukraine has already borne the brunt of a large-scale airstrike directed through Russia. The Ukrainian said Sunday that a father and his 4-year-old son were killed in overnight missile and drone strikes in kyiv.
Ukrainian politician Oleksiy Goncharenko said Ukrainian cities were already accustomed to large-scale shelling. “I don’t think there’s any specific retaliation,” he told Newsweek.
Russia could simply step up its moves in Kyiv or other sites in Ukraine, he said, but it seems unlikely that Russia will launch an offensive on Sumy or increase pressure on Ukrainian positions along the eastern front.
Russia would possibly decide to intensify its attacks on civilian centers and attack Ukraine with bombs, said Daniel Rice, a former special adviser to the Ukrainian military and current president of the American University in Kyiv.
However, the Russian jets dropping those bombs have to contend with man-portable air defense systems operated through Ukraine and recently delivered F-16s equipped with long-range air-to-air missiles, Rice told Newsweek.
Another option would be to allow Ukraine to continue toward Kursk so that the Russian military can attack large numbers of Ukrainian fighters on Russian soil, advised Marina Miron, a postdoctoral researcher at the Department of War Studies. from King’s College London. This would possibly be politically bad for Russia, she told Newsweek, but the strategy may also have some military merit.
Otherwise, Russia could simply redouble its slow but steady advances toward the strategic city of Pokrovsk in eastern Ukraine and into Donetsk, Miron said.
Ivan Stupak, a former member of Ukraine’s security services, warned that senior Kremlin officials would choose to continue the current Russian offensive in an attempt to exact revenge on Kursk. They would want something on a larger scale that is obviously a new direct reaction against Ukraine. , he told Newsweek.
Ultimately, Russia faces a “very complicated decision” in crafting a reaction that sends a strong signal to Western countries that support Ukraine – and supply weapons to Kiev – and also avoid an open escalation with NATO. Miron said.
Many in the Biden administration fear escalation, the Wall Street Journal reported Monday, but some U. S. officials are concerned that Russia could particularly escalate its missile attacks on Ukrainian cities and infrastructure.
Ukraine’s next steps are unclear.
Retired Australian Army Major General Mick Ryan said in a social media post that Ukraine could simply try to hold on to the Kursk territory it took until negotiations take place, partially withdraw from Kursk, or withdraw completely to Ukrainian territory. Each option carries another threat point for troops and different outcomes, Ryan said.
RUSI’s Savill said: “Although the Ukrainians have reversed the public narrative that they were on the defensive, it is unlikely that they will need to sustain a meaningful incursion for months. Captured and for what purpose.
Ellie Cook is a security and defense reporter for Newsweek based in London, United Kingdom. His paintings focus largely on the war between Russia and Ukraine, the U. S. military, weapons systems, and emerging technologies. He joined Newsweek in January 2023, after applying as a reporter for the Daily Express and a degree in International Journalism from City University London.
Languages: English, Spanish.
You can contact Ellie by email at e. cook@newsweek. com.
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