Some Russian state media have warned that the Kursk raid is a “trap” for Volodymr Zelensky in which Vladimir Putin would eventually prevail, while speculation grows about Ukraine’s goals and the end of this audacious operation.
Kremlin propagandists have tried to understand how Ukraine entered Russia so easily, such as RIA Novosti, whose editorial, a week after the Kiev operation was published, claimed that Russian forces were “taking over the situation. “The Kremlin newspaper Tsargrad wrote that the Ukrainian brigades had “fallen into a trap” and suffered heavy losses.
But this edition of the story contradicts accounts, added by Russian military bloggers, of Ukrainian advances, while Zelensky said on Thursday that his troops had captured the city of Sudzha.
It is no surprise that both parties seek to conduct their operations in the most productive manner imaginable; However, while there is no evidence that Ukrainian forces have fallen into a trap, it remains to be seen what kyiv will do next and whether Putin could gain long-term advantages. uncertain.
Instead of being in the eastern Donbass region of Ukraine, looking towards their existing line and controlling as much territory as possible, Kiev’s most productive ensembles are now in a location that may be vulnerable to an effective counterattack from Moscow.
“There is a threat of overreach, and there is a threat that a valuable body of workers and resources will be lost and that Putin may use that simply as a pretext for further escalation,” Michael A. Witt, professor of business. Foreign Affairs and Strategy at King’s Business. School, London.
Putin could also exploit locally the narrative he has maintained about the war he started: that he acted because Russia is threatened through the West, which sees Ukraine as a proxy agent.
“There are opposing forces at work. The first is the narrative that Russia is threatened, which can help Putin and generate his help through a mobilization effect around the flag,” Witt told Newsweek.
“The other is to sow doubt that Putin and his government are the right people to protect Russia,” he said. “Either way, it probably wouldn’t make much difference because there’s no transparent sign that Putin is rarely in charge,” however, the end of dictators is rarely clearly predictable.
Russia’s failure to counter the Ukrainian attack has revealed a lack of defensive reserves and the number of its troops on the front line in eastern and southern Ukraine is declining due to losses. high. This exposed Russian troop shortages and the Kremlin’s resolve to increase recruitment bonuses does not appear to be working.
However, Putin could be forced to carry out a broader mobilization than the partial allocation he announced in September 2022, according to Bloomberg.
Citing anonymous sources close to the Russian Ministry of Defence, the media outlet indicates that a new mobilisation could take place until the end of the year and be presented as a rotation measure to rest front-line troops.
“Putin will certainly use this in his ranks,” Vuk Vuksanovic, a member of the London School of Economics think tank LSE IDEAS, told Newsweek.
He added that it could also be used through Putin “to help Russian society express its views on the reasons for the war and to say to the Russian public: ‘This is why our border with Ukraine is so delicate and vulnerable, and this is why ‘We cannot allow Ukraine to be part of NATO. ‘
Emil Kastehelmi, an army expert at Finnish open-source intelligence research company Black Bird Group, said the incursion threatens to deplete Ukraine’s valuable reserves while it still has manpower problems.
“Seizing a few dozen Russian border villages at the cost of many lives and apparatus will not help,” he told Newsweek. “Overall, the war will not be resolved in Kursk, the most strategically vital regions remain eastern and southern Ukraine. “
On the other hand, Vuksanovic said that there is a question mark over why Kiev is carrying out this offensive while its forces “are overwhelmed” in Ukraine’s Donbas region. Even if he were to reveal the limits of Russian leadership, “wars are not won on the basis of politics. “shame you inflict on your opponent. “
“This resolution may simply result in Ukraine wasting the resource it lacks most in this war, namely manpower. “
Vuksanovic believes that part of the goal of the Ukrainian incursion is to conquer the West by showing that there is still fighting in Kiev. “This is vital for Ukraine as it is wary of the final results of the United States presidential election and there is a threat that the Trump leadership will end its aid to Ukraine. “
In fact, it was Trump who brought up the triumphs beyond Moscow last month, telling Fox News that he told Zelensky in a verbal phone exchange that Kyiv was facing a “war machine” and that they “beat Hitler. “They defeated Napoleon. “
John, the former United States ambassador to Russia J. Sullivan said that while Trump overlooked Moscow’s losses to Japan in 1905 and “especially, the Cold War,” the former president’s comments underscored how unflappable the Kremlin is during early setbacks.
“The victory in the Great Patriotic War (World War II) came after a catastrophic start to the war that preceded the Nazi invasion in the Winter War with Finland,” Sullivan told Newsweek before the start of the Kursk raid.
“That’s what the Russians have been doing for a long, long time and they shouldn’t be underestimated, and the Ukrainians, in fact, underestimate them,” added Sullivan, whose e-book Midnight in Moscow outlines preparations for Putin’s invasion.
On Thursday, Zelensky’s commander-in-chief, Col. Gen. Oleksandr Syrskyi, said a military command had been established in Kursk, while Ukraine’s president reiterated Kyiv’s claim that it now controls more than 80 settlements and more than 440 square miles.
“While there are threats related to any war maneuver, Ukraine faces a greater threat as it continues its war of attrition with Russia,” Robert Orttung, a professor at George Washington University’s Elliott School of International Affairs, told Newsweek.
“There is no chance that she will achieve this victory and she will most likely face an eventual defeat given Russia’s access to more men and materiel. By invading Russia’s aggressor territory, Ukraine is beginning to take the initiative. “
Brendan Cole is a senior reporter for Newsweek in London, United Kingdom. It focuses on Russia and Ukraine, specifically on the war unleashed through Moscow. It also covers other areas of geopolitics, adding China.
Brendan joined Newsweek in 2018 from the International Business Times and, in addition to English, studies Russian and French.
You can contact Brendan by emailing b. cole@newsweek. com or by following him on his X @brendanmarkcole account.
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