Until recently, the war in Ukraine had turned in Vladimir Putin’s favor. Despite some real Ukrainian successes (the use of drones, for example, to threaten the Russian army or the oil industry) on the front, Russia has introduced a series of offensives to push back the defenders. Even if they are not catastrophic for Ukraine, they have made the prospects for a reconquest of occupied territory even slimmer.
Then, in early August, Kiev’s forces broke through Russian defensive lines in an absolutely unforeseen direction: across the border with Russia’s Kursk region. Ukrainian forces temporarily advanced toward Kursk, seizing several key towns and roads. Initially, observers think it could be a minor or temporary incursion, like those carried out last year by paramilitary groups aligned with Ukraine. But today, Ukrainian forces control more than a thousand square kilometers of Russian territory, have taken gigantic numbers of prisoners, and seem more interested in consolidating their gains than in disguising in Ukraine.
Why would Ukraine launch an offensive against Russia itself? After all, kyiv’s main objectives are to defend itself against Russian offensives and try to reconquer as much Ukrainian territory as possible. But the offensive on Kursk offers several clear opportunities for Ukraine and headaches for Putin and his surprised commanders.
One of the immediate benefits for Ukraine is that attacking Russia itself tips the balance in kyiv’s favor. Instead of wasting territory, the Ukrainians are gaining territory. The broader narrative about the direction of the war influences the degree to which Ukraine’s partners are willing to send weapons and monetary support, which is therefore very important. This goes against Russia’s narrative that Ukraine cannot win the war, so the foreign network puts pressure on President Volodymyr Zelensky to reach a deal.
The longer the Ukrainian incursion lasts, the more pressure Russian commanders will face to prioritize it over their own offensives in Ukraine. Some 200,000 Russians are believed to have fled the Ukrainian advance and more Russian forces are believed to have moved into the region; These are not the same groups involved in the Russian offensives. If they fail to engage or oppose Ukraine’s progress, Russian commanders would likely have to divert troops from eastern Ukraine to stabilize the situation in Kursk.
The attack also sends a political message to the United States and other Western partners. U. S. officials have long been involved in the “escalation,” whether it involves sending complex weapons or authorizing their use on Russian territory. Zelensky is fighting with his partners to get more weapons and permission to use them. Putin and his foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov, know exactly what buttons to push to push forward discussions on escalation: Russia aims to become a nuclear power. So the biggest point of contention has been whether Ukraine can use externally provided weapons in opposition to targets in Russia, such as air bases. Ukraine’s position is that the army’s targets in Russia are valid as they are used for attacks against Ukraine. By attacking Kursk, Ukraine gives the impression that fighting on Russian territory does not necessarily lead to the kind of escalation that worries the Biden leadership, although, according to the Wall Street Journal, some officials in the directorate still fear “fierce retaliation” against targets in Russia. Ukraine.
The last main merit of Ukraine is diplomatic. Although the Ukrainian military’s hold on Russian territory is small, it provides kyiv with some political influence. If Ukraine were to seek peace terms in the future, exchanging the territory it occupies for Russian concessions would be a simple victory. Although peace negotiations are unlikely in the short term, big occasions like the US presidential election have encouraged Zelensky to hedge his bets.
However, the Ukrainian attack also carries many risks. The further they go into Russia, the more difficult it will be to maintain the home lines and send reinforcements in a timely manner. Ukraine may also temporarily struggle to maintain its control over the region as Russian reinforcements begin to arrive. Like Russia, Ukraine We have to prioritize the front lines of eastern Ukraine. If Russian forces in Kursk manage to retaliate in the coming weeks, Ukrainian generals would likely be forced to make the same decision as Russia: withdraw troops from other parts of the front to strengthen defenses or reduce their losses and keep forces in the place. If Ukrainian forces were to withdraw to the border, they would also give up diplomatic leverage and the new narrative that the balance of forces now favors Kiev.
On Tuesday, Reuters reported heavy fighting as the Ukrainian advance collided with newly arrived Russian arsenals and heavy weaponry. The Russian Defense Ministry released photographs of Sukhoi Su-34 bombers hitting what are believed to be Ukrainian positions. “The enemy is already aware that the blitzkrieg he had planned has not been successful. “
For the moment, Zelensky seems to be keeping calm, despite Moscow’s new nuclear threats. “Russia brought the war to others, now it is coming home. Ukraine has only sought peace and in fact we will achieve peace,” he said in his speech on Monday night.
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