For the first time, Ukraine is launching more long-range drone attacks than Russia. Published figures indicate that Russia sent 426 Shahed-type drones to Ukraine in July. During the same period, Ukraine retaliated with more than 520 drones.
Russia appears less effective at taking down attackers, as Ukrainian measures appear to be causing greater economic damage to oil refineries and other targets. Ukraine can gain merit in strategic warfare through long-range drone movements, and President Zelensky promises to use more and more larger attack drones.
Russia exhausted the maximum of its stockpile of long-range ballistic and cruise missiles in the first months of the war. And while production has increased since 2022, Russia appears to be firing missiles at roughly the rate at which it is produced, which is around 120 per month. Although missiles are due to their destructive effects, as a recent attack on a children’s hospital demonstrated, much of Russia’s long-range strike force now lives in the form of drones. Its main weapon is the Iranian-designed Shahed series, known in Russia as the Geran, which is easy to produce and costs as little as $20,000, compared to a million or more for a missile.
Originally imported from Iran, Shahed are being produced under a licensing agreement in a giant new factory in Alabuga, east of Moscow. The design has been replaced in recent years, but the basic concepts remain the same: a propeller-driven drone. with a wingspan of eight feet cruising at around 110 mph and with a warhead of just over a hundred pounds. Aside from its low cost, Shahed’s main merit is its range, which spans more than a thousand miles and in all likelihood up to two. thousand.
Russia fires waves of up to thirty Shaheds at a time. These are picked up through the thousands of networked Ukrainian microphones that pay attention to the unique sound of the drone’s “lawnmower” engine, and in the hours it takes them to reach targets, cellular anti-drone equipment equipped with heavy weapons and automatic cannons move. in position. Many Shaheds are also shot down by surface-to-air missiles, while others are knocked off course or smashed to the ground by custom-designed electronic warfare systems.
There are a few other Russian long-range attack drones, but at the moment, the vast majority of incoming drones are of the Shahed type, all of which lately are Shahed.
Ukraine rarely claims to have killed 90% of the new Shahed and 100%. There is no way to prove this and it is clear that the Shahed continue to cause damage, but the risk does not seem to increase. Although there were warnings that Shahed’s production would rise sharply this year as the Alabuga factory ramped up production, the figures remained relatively stable. Shahed Tracker, analyst in June. Matrix The total for July was 426.
Shahed attacks throughout the month, data from Shahed Tracker
In response, Ukraine has developed a wide diversity of highly diverse attack drones: analyst HI Sutton knows of no less than 22 other models, from switched light aircraft to custom-made jet attack drones. However, most are designed to be as simple, cheap, and effective as possible, regardless of their appearance, as the Drainpipe Drone that was first noticed in April. Some come from well-known sources, basically Ukrainian start-ups and teams raising money for their projects, many are mysterious and only known from rubble recovered from Russia. .
In 2023, Ukraine was only generating “dozens” of Shahed-type drones per month, according to defense industry officials. The attacks, although highly publicized, were small-scale. That has changed. Massive attacks are becoming more frequent, rarely in parallel with movements via Storm Shadow or other missiles provided by Western allies.
Everything we know about the Ukrainian drone strikes comes from Russian officials, because the Ukrainians don’t communicate anything about it. No company in Russia publishes accounts like the Ukrainian Air Force does regarding Shahed and the missile attacks, but statements are published through local governors and army offices.
Over the past month, on July 5, the Russian Defense Ministry “confirmed that its forces destroyed 50 Ukrainian drones on Russian territory,” on July 9 there were 38, on July 11, 75, on July 18 it deployed 33 more last month. On the 20th there are 26 and on July 22 they shot down 80 drones. There were another 20 on the 27th, 41 on the 29th and 19 on the 31st, in addition to a smaller number on the other 11 days.
These Russian figures are shown and would possibly or may not constitute the total number of drones launched. While the claimed cull rate is even higher than that claimed through Ukraine, there is no sign of any sort of coordinated sensor and anti-drone network. weapons noticed in Ukraine.
Given those reservations, based on statements through Russian state agencies, Ukraine introduced more than 524 one-way attack drones in July, compared with fewer than 200 in the past two months. This appears to be the first month that Ukraine’s total has surpassed Russia’s.
There is little data on Russian drone targets; Reports of power outages and electrical disorders recommend that movements in Ukraine’s force infrastructure continue. Ukraine is believed to have lost approximately part of its 18 gigawatt capacity and there is an urgent plan to rebuild it. before winter.
Oil depot in Russian-occupied Crimea set on fire by drone attack
The Ukrainian crusade is unfolding on several fronts and aims at a variety of high-value targets. One set of targets includes oil refineries and oil and fuel storage facilities. Hits produce stunning photos and videos on social media, making it easy to confirm. The overall damage to the industry is difficult to assess, but it is increasing. Sanctions make it difficult to repair refineries and Russia could be forced to increase costs or ration supplies.
Russian army air bases are a second-class target. The precise levels of Ukrainian attack drones are unknown, but a recent attack on the Olenya air base in Russia occurred more than 1,800 kilometers away. This type of distance endangers a huge number of Russian Bases. These movements are difficult to assess, as the only data available on the damage comes from satellite photographs which can unfortunately be confusing. Ukraine claims to have destroyed a Russian Su-30M at Saky air base and wounded a Tu-22M bomber. in Olenya with tricycles on July 27, although it is very unlikely that this data will be confirmed.
Keep in mind that for any type of target, a small warhead from a drone can cause disproportionate damage. A single destroyed Russian fighter can pay several times the cost of the entire drone campaign. Some of the larger drones can carry much larger warheads, up to several hundred. kilos, putting a greater number of targets at risk.
Electrical substations, cooled in Russia with flammable oil, are the target of Ukrainian drones.
On Twitter/X, Mick Ryan, a senior fellow for military studies at the Lowry Institute, notes that one of the goals of Ukraine’s drone crusade is to create dilemmas for Russian military planners. Removing the air defenses from the front line might simply help the air bases, but it would expose the troops to air attacks. Focusing on air bases means that important oil facilities will burn at an ever-increasing rate. Changing protocols to allow defenders to open fire faster could simply increase the already terrible rate of friendly incidents in the fire.
Ryan points out that, in addition to its economic and military effects, the drone crusade is a political weapon. Rising fuel costs and burning oil tanks are turning Russians into the real consequences of the invasion of Ukraine.
The important question is how many long-range attack drones Ukraine can produce and whether July is a failure or a trend.
When I spoke with drone manufacturers Terminal Autonomy last December, they discussed plans for mass production of their AQ-400 Scythe. The drone’s wooden structure can be made with the same conveniences used to cut packaged furniture, and it is simple to assemble using unskilled labor. They believe they could only make 500 drones per month until mid-2024, but that would have the support of the government. It’s possible that other drone brands that spawn Bobr, Lyuty, and others simply have capacity, if they get enough funding.
Simple but effective, long-range drones can perform long-range precision movements and can be built in quantities.
In December, Oleksandr Kamyshin, Ukraine’s Minister of Strategic Industries, said that his goal was to produce 10,000 attack drones with a range of several hundred kilometers by 2024. That would equate to more than 830 per month.
And last week, in one of his late-night speeches, President Zelensky said: “We are taking steps to increase the number and quality of our long-range drones. “
A month of increased drone movements would probably not make sense. Ukraine has yet to surpass the total of six hundred Shahed introduced through Russia in March and December. But July may also mark a turning point in strategic drone warfare and the start of developing unrest. for Russia.
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