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Event analysis
Russian forces continue to inflict suffering, but the assembly of NATO leaders in Washington can say their efforts in Ukraine are paying off.
By Julian E. Barnes and Eric Schmitt
Reporting from Washington
Russia will make significant territorial gains in Ukraine in the coming months as its poorly trained forces struggle to breach Ukrainian defenses now reinforced with Western munitions, US officials say.
In the spring and early summer, Russian troops attempted to capture territory outside the city of Kharkiv and resume their offensive into eastern Ukraine, in order to capitalize on their capture of Avdiivka. Russia suffered thousands of casualties in this offensive, without gaining new territory. .
Russia’s unrest constitutes a change in the dynamics of the war, which had favored Moscow in recent months. Russian forces continue to inflict suffering, but their slow advances have been slowed by the hardening of Ukrainian lines.
The coming months will not be easy for Ukraine. But allied leaders meeting in Washington this week on the occasion of the 75th anniversary of the founding of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization can legitimately say that their efforts for Ukraine are paying off.
“Ukrainian forces are at their wits’ end and face months of difficult fighting ahead, but a Russian breakthrough is now unlikely,” said Michael Kofman, senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International. Peace, who recently visited Ukraine.
Leaders at the summit are expected to pledge new investment for Ukraine, announce plans for the alliance to coordinate arms deliveries and promise Kyiv that it will eventually become a full ally.
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