Recently, panic gripped the foreign network of geostrategic observers when it appeared that Chinese ships would begin sailing in a remote stretch of water near the Sea of Japan. The Moscow Times reported on imminent agreements between Russia, China and North Korea to allow this to happen, as proposed by the Kremlin. Here is a map showing the domain and it is on the Tumen River. The reader will notice that the river meanders north when the border between China and North Korea turns to the right and just before reaching the sea, China separates and the Tumen becomes a border between Russia and North Korea. North. There is a point where the borders between Russia, China and North Korea meet, and then the Tumen becomes a river between Russia and North Korea, about fifteen kilometers before the Pacific coast. In other words, China has no access to the sea in this region, and now it is possible, if Putin is to be believed. What does this mean and why all this geostrategic madness?
First of all, you know that your intrepid columnist, in 2009, went to the Tumen River itself and to the exact place where Russia, China and North Korea meet, and wrote two columns. It was a desolate episode, incredibly bloodless and largely deserted, where it was 18 degrees below zero at the time of the visit. Here is one of the chronicles, about the trade, history, ethnic composition and strategic importance of the region. The trip to North Korea is only discussed in a later article, until I left the area. I did so following in the footsteps of two Korean-American journalists working for Current TV (then related to Al Gore) who were arrested and taken to the capital, Pyongyang. and then released thanks to Bill Clinton’s visit. This incident was the region’s only claim to fame since World War II, until today.
Evidently, some things have changed since my visit: the Russian aspect is still largely neglected, but for a frontier town, the Chinese aspect is full of activity and industry, and the North Korean aspect has evolved into spaces where the Chinese do not have a lot of activity. This is especially true on the coast of North Korean territory, where the port of Rasin or Rachin, built and controlled largely by the Chinese, provides China with an outlet to ship its industry to the world. the DPRK, according to Kim Jong On’s whims. All Chinese goods cross the Tumen River via a bridge and travel on a road to the port of Rasin. Therefore, the concept of allowing China to sail directly to the Pacific coast via the Tumen River would make this port redundant. The DPRK would thus lose a lot of revenue. In addition, making the Tumen navigable via giant vessels would require gigantic dredging and expansion. Putin’s supposed concept of restoring access to China turns out to be a fantasy, a fantasy.
Why then did you launch this idea? This component of coastal access was ceded to Russia through the Ching dynasty in the 19th century and the People’s Republic of China has been calling for its recovery for decades. Putin is running out of incentive to offer Beijing its war in Ukraine. This offer pleases the Chinese public, but provokes fury in Moscow among members of Putin’s regime who are seething with fanaticism towards Great Russia. From the latter’s point of view, ships are left to sail first and soon the Chinese will openly ask for it. But Putin makes one particular point: If Beijing gains direct access to the Sea of Japan, the strategic equation will change dramatically. At present, the Chinese military has to break through the Korean Peninsula to succeed in this area. Beijing will then be able to directly threaten Japan (and various disputed islands). The burden will largely fall on the United States and its allies, who will want to increase naval projection, protection, readiness and resources.
This is part of Putin’s global geostrategic pressure game against the West and its allies, if they continue to challenge him in Ukraine. Cuba, Europe, the Middle East (via Iran), and now the Far East are all topics of pressure he explores. Moscow would like to reconstitute the former anti-NATO communist bloc on a global scale. By postponing coastal access to the Tumen River from China, it could simply gain membership from the People’s Republic of China. So far, China does not believe that it is worth risking Western sanctions. Beijing sees no explanation for dividing the world and restricting its exports to Russia’s allies, who are not in better economic health. In addition, a DPRK port like Rasin allows China to avoid existing sanctions whenever it needs to, relabeling its products as Korean before exporting them globally. Having your own access to the sea via the Tumen River would save you this. So no, no one is buying Putin’s gesture – for now.