The Lancet kamikaze drone has been one of Russia’s most effective weapons in this conflict. Essentially a large, long-range FPV capable of striking more than 30 miles away, the Lancet has been flagged as a specific risk to Ukraine’s artillery, air defense, and air defense. and other assets.
Recently, production has accelerated dramatically. A drone attack on the factory that generates the camera systems for the Lancet slowed production for a while, however, in May Russia carried out more than three hundred Lancet attacks, almost twice as many as in any previous month. The accumulation of data in the figures of The Lancet is alarming. But the Ukrainians are looking for tactics to lessen the effect of the Lancet, and Russian figures show that, while dangerous, the Lancet is not as fatal as it could be.
Manufactured through the ZALA Group, a subsidiary of the Kalashnikov Group, the Lancet is a catapult-launched marauding munition, with a unique double-X wing arrangement. It has solar cameras and thermal imaging, and carries an anti-tank warhead capable of striking with wonderful precision,
Russia’s biggest challenge with the Lancet is that there were never enough of them. A video released nearly a year ago showed a vast Lancet production facility with rows of cells in production and advised that production be quintupled or more. But after expanding slightly, the number of movements declined after an incident at the ZOMZ optical tool factory that makes cameras for The Lancet reduced production.
The numbers have risen since then, and the Russian site LostArmour, which usefully collects and tracks all online videos of Lancet attacks, recorded a record number in May with more than three hundred Lancet attacks. The June total is expected to be lower, but the trend remains bullish.
One of the main responsibilities of The Lancet is to fire counter-batteries aimed at Ukrainian artillery. However, Lostarmour’s very revealing statistics show its impact.
According to LostArmour, in the past 30 days, Lancet artillery movements (adding self-propelled guns, towed artillery, and rocket launchers) have destroyed 15 artillery pieces and broken 52 others. They also recorded forty-five movements of which it is unclear whether the targets were broken. In addition, there are nine other cases in which the video transparently shows a failure.
This represents a mortality rate of slightly 12% last month. This rate is much lower than the rate of more than 20% recorded at the beginning of the war. But the real figure may now be even lower.
It is not enough to hit a vehicle to kill it. Generally, when a warhead explodes, there is a brief burst of orange flame and a burst of white smoke. This is obtained even if a warhead explodes in the middle of an empty field. You can only check damage to a target based on what happens next.
The maximum apparent signal is a secondary explosion in which the fuel ammunition stored inside the target explodes, such as the well-known “turret launch” of Russian tanks due to their poor layout.
Very often, symptoms of a chimney will appear. After the initial smoke cloud, the target smokes for an extended period of time, generating a long column that often turns gray or black due to the burning of oil and other materials. As the fire takes root, giant flames are seen.
In the case of self-propelled weapons, secondary explosions are common, making casualties evident. This explains why we doubt many of the Lancet attacks.
An earlier report by the British think tank RUSI noted several times that the artillery hit by the Lancet was still working: “One officer also said that even though he had noticed his weapon ‘destroyed’ several times in a row, it was still very much alive.
The German-made PzH-2000 proved to be a tricky visitor in Ukraine
This is reinforced through an interview given through Ukrainian media to the commander of a PzH-2000 self-propelled gun supplied through Germany, who claims that his vehicle hit 3 times through lancets without suffering serious damage. He comments that the mix of smart armor and a smart design in which the stored ammunition is inside the vehicle and cannot be fired smoothly, makes it very resistant.
This PzH-2000 is possibly the same vehicle observed above, and it appears to only have minor damage to its additional “hedgehog” armor due to an obvious Lancet hit.
The LostArmour website brings together a series of PzH-2000 impact videos, adding this one from June 23, this one from the same date, this one from June 22. But while these show the impact and white smoke, the videos do not show the aftermath, suggesting that they lack evidence of death or even serious harm. No black smoke, no cigars.
On the contrary, Russian-made self-propelled guns become impressive fireballs when hit by Ukrainian FPVs. This is possibly due to a less physically powerful vehicle configuration or increased guidance from drone operators, who can reach vulnerable points. Apparent flame, smoke plume, and secondary explosion in the video below.
The Lancet has an automated steering formula that can set targets even when the communication link is lost. It appears to be powered by NVIDIA chips manufactured in the United States and acquired illegally. But, as Forbes has already reported, the steering software turns out to be flawed. He was removed for a while, but, according to LostArmour’s statistics, he’s been involved in about a quarter of the moves over the past month.
Obviously, the formula is still far from perfect. In a recent video of a Lancet attack on a Buk cellular anti-aircraft formula, when approached twice, the Lancet briefly fixes a shadow of the Buk, but does not fix on the vehicle. The view from a reconnaissance drone shows that the Lancet is impacting the ground several meters from the target.
Both sides are devising optical blocking formulas so that their drones can hit targets protected by radio jamming bubbles. In the case of the Lancet, the guidance formula might be better than nothing, but it turns out that it requires more work.
Towed artillery presents another challenge for fire confirmations. Unless the Lancet activates munitions stacked nearby, there will be no secondary explosion or plume of smoke emerging. Claimed shots like this with the U. S. -supplied M777 155mm howitzers are difficult to assess.
Since a howitzer is necessarily a giant piece of steel rather than a gathering of fragile parts like an anti-aircraft system, anything less than a direct hit will do little more than scratch the paint. (As RSI points out, weapons teams hear the Lancet approaching in time to move away from the affected area)
But many of those moves would likely fall short of genuine goals. Ukrainian intelligence recently released a symbol of six dummy M777s. Dummy improvised artillery pieces made from old tubes have been observed, but they appear to have been made by professionals. When camouflaged and noticed from the sky, they are difficult to distinguish from genuine objects. Russia would likely have expended a large number of lancets rather than decoys left exposed in the region with more concealed genuine artillery. At least one symbol shows an M777 doll with remains of the Lancet.
No one can guess why Ukrainians decided to reveal the lifestyles of those models. But they will make target selection more complicated and raise questions about the number of valid calls.
Lancets, which appear in increasing numbers, pose a risk to Ukrainian artillery. But on the other hand, Ukraine appears to be retaliating with a mix of locally made “Ukrolancet” and FPV munitions that can hit targets at distances of more than 19 kilometers and appear to catch misplaced Russian artillery.
We don’t know how many errors there are (their success rate may be higher or lower than that of the Lancets), but the huge number of “catastrophic casualties” with secondary primary explosions suggests that the overall effect is significantly larger. of just one month shows 21 FPV shots against Russian artillery only through Wild Hornets drones.
While Lancet movements may now continue at a rate of 300 per month, Ukraine is reported to be generating more than 3,000 FPVs per day. The Lancet is effective, but it risks being overshadowed by other munitions. In a war that demands any quantity and quality, Russia can lose in either respect.
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