There is still a lot we don’t know about the attacks in Dagestan.
It is unclear who the gunmen were or what their broader association might be. There is no immediate claim of liability.
Questions also arise about the number of attackers and the total number of other people who died.
But despite this uncertainty, conclusions are drawn, some more unexpected than others.
According to the local deputy of the Russian parliament, Abdulkhakim Gadzhiyev, “there is no doubt” that the attacks are related to the “intelligence of Ukraine and NATO countries”.
Oh, really? It turns out that there is no evidence.
But this is the first time an internal attack has drawn accusations of Western and Ukrainian involvement.
Remember the fatal attack on the Crocus City Hall concert hall in Moscow in March?It is the deadliest terrorist attack in Russia in two decades.
The Islamic State organization claimed responsibility, but that prevented the government from blaming Kiev.
Before we go any further, let’s take a step back and identify what we know about what happened on Sunday.
The attacks appear to have been coordinated. The targets were reportedly a synagogue and an Orthodox church in Derbent.
The historic city claims to be the oldest in Russia. It is home to an ancient Jewish network and is a UNESCO World Heritage Site.
The population of Dagestan is predominantly Muslim and is no stranger to Islamist violence.
A local insurgency has carried out attacks in the North Caucasus over the past two decades, following Russia’s wars in Chechnya.
In 2017, the FSB declared that it had defeated the insurgency and since then attacks have become less frequent.
But the attack on Crocus City reminds us that the Russian Islamist risk has disappeared.
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And there’s that unsettling moment in October, shortly after the Gaza war began, when an angry mob stormed Dagestan’s main airport in search of Jewish passengers arriving on a flight from Tel Aviv.
There are many hypotheses that this attack may be along the same lines.
State media reported that the gunmen were supporters of an “international terrorist organization,” so they mentioned law enforcement.
The American Institute for the Study of War has warned that these are most likely paintings from the North Caucasus branch of the Islamic State, Wilayat Kavkaz, but there is no confirmation of this.
Despite all this, this has prevented some, such as the local Duma deputy, from claiming Western participation.
Leonid Slutsky, who heads the Duma’s International Affairs Committee, is another.
“The United States and its European satellites (. . . ) they have real sponsors of state terrorism,” he said on Telegram, adding that the victims had “blood on their hands”.
Don’t be if there are more.
This is in line with the Russian government’s broader narrative that the country is under attack across Ukraine and the West.
This is the reason, the Russians are told, for going to war against Kiev. Chaining attacks like this helps them.