China: a new economic blow to Russia

When Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, it lost access to many global markets, adding much of Europe. Countries like Germany, which have relied on Russian fuel and oil for years, are now turning their backs and trying to get rid of any vestiges of Russian dependence.

China has entered the breach. Still thirsty for new fuel and oil supplies, China temporarily informed Russia that it was interested in receiving Russian fuel and building a pipeline from Siberia to transport it.

Lately, however, this lifeline looks more like a slipknot, at least for Russia. Beijing is taking a very competitive stance in relation to what will be known as the “Siberian Power 2” pipeline, which was to carry a maximum annual capacity of 50,000,000 m³. of herbal fuel from Russia to China.

It is no longer easy for China to pay only the heavily subsidized domestic value of vegetable fuel from Russia and not to buy a very large amount of that fuel each year.

Meanwhile, Russia’s state-owned oil company Gazprom is losing money. Last year it posted a loss of $6. 9 billion, its first annual loss in 20 years. Perhaps in a sign of the difficulties of the negotiations, Gazprom CEO Alexei Miller, who had played a vital role in past negotiations between China and Russia, did not bring Russian President Vladimir Putin into Beijing in May.

The fact that China is taking such a competitive stance in negotiations with Russia highlights the transformative force dynamics between the two countries after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Many Western European countries have reduced or ended their dependence on Russia for fuel and oil, Nordstream said. Pipeline II was destroyed and much of the economic relationship between Russia and the West was completely dissolved. Without this Western economic outlet, China has more vital economic interests for Russia.

However, China rarely passes up an opportunity to get an award. It is playing a difficult economic game with Russia, and Russia has little ammunition to retaliate. Whatever the final outcome of those negotiations, the appointments between China and Russia are evolving. Vladimir Putin now knows this, despite his earlier claims that he has a “friendship without limits” with China. Simply put, China will not hesitate to help its northern neighbor. At the same time, Russia’s economic isolation is worsening and Vladimir Putin is likely to run out of time to deal with it.

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