Why Russia is arming General Haftar in Libya

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Politics, geopolitics and conflict

Libya continues to collapse, quietly, with growing signs that rival governments are coming together for something big. Earlier this week, with the help of U. S. intelligence, the Italian government intercepted a shipment suspected of carrying Russian weapons to General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya. He does not fail to explain why his rival, interim Prime Minister Dbeibah in Tripoli, is very nervous, and in public. Russia is arming Haftar in exchange for Moscow being allowed to build a port on the Mediterranean coast, which would give him a base with Italy directly on his sites.

On the front lines of the war between Russia and Ukraine, Ukraine launched a drone attack on a military base in Russia that housed Iranian flight instructors. Three other people were reportedly killed in the attack. Lately, “red lines” are crossed every week. The Biden administration appears to be inching closer to allowing military contractors to deploy to Ukraine (as does Russia’s Wagner), ostensibly to help Ukraine and repair U. S. weapons. After Putin’s lavish stopover in North Korea, the media was abuzz with the announcement of the deployment of North Korean troops in Ukraine, something Pyongyang never announced (and all of this remains, at best, unverified). The United States plans to confront Russia on Friday at the UN over the supply of weapons to North Korea.

Politics, geopolitics and conflict

Libya continues to collapse, quietly, with growing signs that rival governments are coming together for something big. Earlier this week, with the help of U. S. intelligence, the Italian government intercepted a shipment suspected of carrying Russian weapons to General Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya. He does not fail to explain why his rival, interim Prime Minister Dbeibah in Tripoli, is very nervous (and in public). Russia is arming Haftar in exchange for Moscow being allowed to build a port on the Mediterranean coast, which would give him a base with Italy directly on his sites.

A failed coup in Bolivia on Wednesday led to the arrest of more than a dozen army and intelligence officers on Thursday. The coup was planned in May and led by a former army chief. Military troops moved into the capital’s main square on Wednesday. When trying to break down the doors of the presidential palace, without success, the arrested coup plotter claimed that he had acted on the president’s orders, a situation that reflects the impressive failure of the coup.

Iranian elections have officially begun. If there is no transparent majority after Friday’s vote, the two leading candidates will face off in the second circular on July 5.

Discovery

Exxon Mobil Corp. has filed its seventh oil allocation in Guyana, aiming to increase crude production in the 2030s. The Hammerhead assignment, which is pending approval, is expected to produce up to 180,000 b/d by 2029, particularly expanding Guyana’s production capacity. to nearly 1. 5 million b/d. The allocation underscores Exxon’s commitment to Guyana, a region critical to its post-pandemic recovery, despite environmental criticism.

Also on the Guyana front, CGX Energy and Frontera Energy have officially notified the government of Guyana of potential publicity interest in the Wei-1 discovery in the Corentyne offshore block. The Wei-1 well, drilled last year as part of their joint venture, met Phase 2 obligations and also served as an evaluation for the Kawa-1 program. With the backing of investment bank Houlihan Lokey, CGX and Frontera are actively exploring strategic opportunities to unlock the block’s full prospects, marking a significant milestone in its offshore exploration and progression efforts in Guyana.

Vår Energi announced the successful discovery of Cerisa oil and fuel in Norway’s offshore production license PL 636, with estimated recoverable gross resources ranging from 18 to 39 Mboe. Located near the Gjøa platform, this discovery marks the fourth consecutive discovery in the region. , adding to a combined resource outlook of up to 110 Mboe when previous discoveries such as Gjøa North and Ofelia/Kyrre are incorporated. The exploration well and 3 appraisal wells were drilled via the Deepsea Yantai rig, confirming the absence of oil-water contact and suggesting a bullish outlook for resource estimates. Vår Energi plans to integrate Cerisa into existing infrastructure for immediate development, aligning with its strategy towards the North Sea as a vital production hub.

Chevron and Equatorial Guinea’s GEPetrol have closed a $2 billion deal for two PSCs for the EG-06 and EG-11 offshore blocks. These blocks, adjacent to the productive Block B that hosts the Zafiro field, aim to rejuvenate Equatorial Guinea’s oil and marine fuel sector. amid a decline in production from mature fields. The blocks, previously operated through ExxonMobil, have potential resources coming from the discovery of Acestruz-1, paving the way for an extensive exploration and production program that aligns with Equatorial Guinea’s strategy to attract investment.

Murphy Oil Corp. aims to start drilling its first offshore well in Côte d’Ivoire by the summer of 2025, pending final negotiations with government officials. The company has significant interests in five deepwater blocks in the Tano Basin, covering approximately 1. 5 million gross acres. , adding that the Peacock discovery was previously evaluated through Anadarko Corp. Murphy is actively working with the government of Côte d’Ivoire to boost seismic awareness and finalize box progression plans ahead of schedule. Given the high interest from industry players due to adjacent primary discoveries, Murphy anticipates favorable situations for potential partnerships to advance its offshore operations in the region.

Transactions, mergers and acquisitions

Quantum Capital Group has agreed to acquire Caerus Oil and Gas for $1. 8 billion, highlighting increased personal equity activity in the oil sector post-Covid. Caerus, subsidized through Oaktree Capital Management, Anschutz Investment Co. et Old Ironsides Energy, operates more than 7,400 wells and extensive infrastructure in Colorado and Utah. This acquisition illustrates the existing trend of purchases in the energy sector, in contrast to the same old corporate buyers of assets subsidized by personal stocks. The deal reflects the physically powerful recovery and accumulation of interest in oil and fuel investments driven by higher energy prices.

The Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (ADNOC) is making progress in negotiations to acquire Covestro, a German polymer producer, with an anticipated offer of $12. 5 billion. The move underlines ADNOC’s strategic shift towards specialty chemicals amid fears of a decline in demand for classic fuels. . Covestro, known for its polyurethane and polycarbonate products, has 50 production sites and experienced a significant decline in sales in 2023. ADNOC’s interest in European chemical corporations reflects a broader trend of oil majors diversifying into resilient chemical sectors.

Sempra (SRE. N) has signed a non-binding agreement with Saudi Aramco to source LNG from Phase 2 of its Port Arthur assignment in Texas. Aramco plans to purchase five million tonnes of LNG a year for 20 years and will invest 25% of the capital of the allocation. The agreement marks Aramco’s strategic decision to expand its global LNG portfolio, strengthening its role in the LNG market amid growing demand for low-carbon energy sources. The expansion of Port Arthur LNG Phase 2 is part of Sempra’s broader strategy. to global energy security through the export of U. S. natural gas. With the capacity to load up to two more LNG trains capable of generating thirteen Mtpa, the facility aims to become one of the world’s leading LNG export hubs.

Long Beach-based California Resources Corp. is nearing completion of the $2. 1 billion acquisition of Aera Energy LLC, pending final regulatory approvals. This acquisition would position California Resources as California’s largest oil manufacturer and, in particular, increase its carbon storage capacity in Kern County. To fund this strategic move, the company recently closed a $600 million debt offering, with the bulk of the proceeds going towards paying off Aera’s existing debt. In addition, California Resources is moving forward with its plan to identify an underground primary carbon storage facility, pending Kern County and the EPA will approve its long-term sustainability goals later this year as part of the transition to fossil fuels.

SM Energy Co. et Northern Oil and Gas Inc. announced a joint acquisition of assets in Uinta Basin, Utah, from XCL Resources LLC for approximately $2. 6 billion. SM Energy will have an 80% stake for $2. 04 billion net, while Northern Oil will get a 20% stake for $510 million. This acquisition allows SM Energy to expand its operations in the Uinta Basin, known for generating a unique type of waxy oil used in lubricants, complementing its existing presence in the Eagle Ford and Midland basins in Texas. The transaction reflects ongoing consolidation in the U. S. oil and fuels sector. A number of drillings are expected to be in the U. S. , as corporations review their drilling portfolios amid a favorable market environment.

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