Advertisement
For premium support please call:
A year can make quite a difference, and 2023 lifted and upended the political fortunes of Florida’s two White House suitors.
Former President Donald Trump is ending the year with likely forward momentum, while Gov. Ron DeSantis’ presidential ambitions appear to hinge entirely on Iowa.
The average of FiveThirtyEight polls of the No. 1 Republican electorate just days into 2024 showed Trump holding a roughly 50-point lead over DeSantis, from 61. 4% to 11. 7%. Nearly a year ago, the gap was much narrower, with Trump leading DeSantis. only 45% to 34. 3% on the website average.
That’s a dismaying turnaround for DeSantis, and a remarkable comeback for Trump, who was charged with 91 felonies throughout the past 12 months.
So what happened? Here is a month-by-month summary of the year to serve as a guide and also as an explanation.
DeSantis exploded into 2023 as a New Year’s Eve fireworks show. On Jan. 3, the governor was sworn in for the second time, and his inaugural address laid out the issues he would pursue during the spring.
“We reject this ‘woke’ ideology,” DeSantis thundered. “We seek normalcy, not philosophical lunacy. We will not allow reality, facts and truth to become optional. We will never surrender to the woke mob.”
Trump’s influence appeared to be waning, outweighed by the disappointments of the 2022 midterm elections, a disappointing release from the crusade and a pre-Thanksgiving dinner with Ye, formerly known as Kanye West, and white supremacist Nick Fuentes.
Trump’s election of California Rep. Kevin McCarthy as speaker of the U. S. House of Representatives appeared to be sluggish in early January, with a historic 15 votes required before McCarthy’s election. Even Trump’s hardliner Matt Gaetz, the Florida House Republican in Pensacola, scoffed at the former president supporting McCarthy, writing on Twitter: “Supporting McCarthy is the worst HR resolution President Trump has ever made. Sad!”
FiveThirtyEight polling averages on Jan. 31: Trump, 42.1, DeSantis, 32.7%.
If ever there was a month when Trump turned around on DeSantis for the first time, it was February. While President Joe Biden posterized his Republican colleague from Florida, U. S. Sen. Rick Scott, and his federal systems sunset bill, Trump took aim at DeSantis’ voting record in Congress on federal entitlement systems.
In a speech in West Palm Beach, Trump deployed an early strike strategy, vowing that “under no circumstances will we allow Medicare or Social Security to be taken away from our nation. “
Toward the end of the month, the governor made the first of a year-long series of unforced errors when he embarked on a book excursion that opened him up to Trump’s broadsides that, over time, proved to be fading.
FiveThirtyEight polling averages on Feb. 28: Trump 45.2%, DeSantis 29.6%.
Trump continued his attack on DeSantis’ record in Congress and his calls for adjustments to entitlement programs, this time with announcements. As luck would have it, Trump supporters in Florida and out of state unleashed their own barrage of bombs against the governor on social media.
The annual gathering of the Florida Legislature began with a healthy dose of red meat aimed to bolster DeSantis’ standing among the hardcore right wing of the party. But those hardline stances ultimately seemed to have eroded his support among more mainstream conservative GOP voters and donors.
The first explosion in Trump’s developing legal minefield erupted when he accused him in New York of fees similar to hiding a secret payment to adult film actress Stormy Daniels in the weeks before the 2016 presidential election.
DeSantis was hurt when he failed to answer a question about the U. S. relationship with Ukraine, calling it a “territorial dispute,” exposing him to foreign policy complaints from his own party.
FiveThirtyEight March 31 election averages: Trump 47. 1%, DeSantis 26. 7%.
The unprecedented indictment of a former president gave Trump full media coverage and galvanized his supporters as he traveled to Manhattan for the impeachment trial.
Standing on Southern Boulevard in West Palm Beach, his supporter Mike Fuller was furious at the allegations he called “the worst hypocrisy I’ve ever seen in my life. “He added: “We think it’s going to backfire. It lit a flame in the Conservative party. “movement in this country. “
An NBC News poll in mid-April showed that about two-thirds of the No. 1 Republican electorate said they would support Trump and dismissed considerations about his electability despite the formal rate of irregularities.
Trump’s team also unleashed yet another ad ridiculing the governor, this one mocking DeSantis’ purported habit of scooping pudding with his fingers.
The arrest of two leaders of Florida’s Democratic Party has highlighted a measure subsidized by DeSantis and held up as an example of the governor’s presidential ambition: a six-week abortion ban.
FiveThirtyEight April 30 election averages: Trump 52. 4%, DeSantis, 22. 9%.
Eventually, DeSantis’ long-awaited presidential campaign took place, but it was delayed due to technical difficulties at X, formerly known as Twitter.
In addition, the governor’s far-right timeline in Tallahassee has continued to erode the conservative majority’s influence in the Republican Party. For example, some members of the party have begun to express explicit critical and questionable perspectives on their feud with Walt Disney World, a theme Trump seized on in a social media post. Instead of in broad daylight, DeSantis signed the six-week abortion ban around midnight at the governor’s mansion.
During a CNN town hall, Trump seized on the U.S. southern border issue, a topic of especially paramount concern within his party, saying he would reinstate his 2018 family separation policy as a punitive measure to dissuade people from coming to America.
“When you tell a circle of family members that if you come we’re going to separate you, they don’t come,” he said.
FiveThirtyEight polling averages onMay 31: Trump 54%, DeSantis, 22.7%.
Trump has been indicted on a second set of criminal charges, this time for possession and tampering with classified documents. He was arraigned in Miami federal court, and after his court appearance, he went to the popular Cuban-American restaurant Versailles, where his supporters prayed. for him.
The backs of the fans stood firm. Kevin Caldwell, of Fort Lauderdale, said he made the stop outside the Miami federal courthouse with an American flag because, he said, “freedom” was under attack.
“What we’re seeing is a damaged America,” Caldwell said. “The U. S. is under attack. Our freedoms are under attack. “
After ignoring Trump’s past attacks, DeSantis began to fight back, criticizing Trump’s refusal to outline his position on abortion and noting that Trump would be constitutionally limited to one term if he won in 2024.
FiveThirtyEight June 30 voting averages: Trump, 52. 7%, DeSantis, 19. 6%.
Falling further and further behind, DeSantis has raised the bar on issues, adding immigration. He has called for an end to birthright, but critics have criticized the governor for his proposal for a new Florida immigration law, which they say would hurt the state’s economy and then dismiss a video shared during his crusade that some Republicans called “homophobic” and said it was “right” to criticize Trump’s record on LGBTQ issues.
In Palm Beach, Trump spoke at the Turning Point USA summit in an effort to appeal to young voters. In his speech, he claimed DeSantis’ initial gubernatorial victory in 2018, and his mentions of “Ron DeSanctus” drew boos from the crowd. Composed mainly of MAGA loyalists, whom the governor did not address.
“That’s the crowd that he (DeSantis) wants to win over if he wants to run in the GOP primary,” Andrew Kolvert, a spokesman for Turning Point Action, said of DeSantis’ apparent slap. “It’s a disappointment. We think it’s a mistake of his campaign. “
In a sign of more turmoil for his campaign, DeSantis scaled back the size of his after spending about $8 million of his $20 million on second-quarter fundraising in the early weeks of the campaign.
FiveThirtyEight July 31 election averages: Trump 54. 8%, DeSantis 15. 9%.
A record two sets of indictments against Trump land — one in Washington for his efforts to overturn the 2020 presidential election, and the other in Georgia for his efforts to pressure election officials in that state.
The GOP’s first presidential debate was held in Milwaukee, but Trump skipped the meeting. Instead, he made the impression in a taped interview with former Fox News star Tucker Carlson. DeSantis has been underwhelming in the crowded debate scene.
Trump continued to appeal to Republican voters, but a bigger result emerged at the polls. The first New York Times/Siena vote of the 2024 election cycle puts Trump virtually tied with President Biden, with 43%. He would be the current president’s leader in national elections and in key states.
August FiveThirtyEight vote averages. 31: Trump 54. 1%, DeSantis 14. 4%.
The first lawsuit challenging Trump’s eligibility under the 14th Amendment, filed in South Florida, has been dismissed by a federal judge. This unleashed a series of other constitutionally demanding situations with effects in states such as Michigan and Minnesota.
Since her first debate appearance, former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley has risen in the No. 1 Republican polls, posing a threat to DeSantis.
In confrontational speeches in Washington, Trump and DeSantis appealed to evangelicals.
“We need to have choice in schools and we need to have choice in cars,” Trump told Concerned Women for America, comparing freedom to his opposition to electric vehicles.
In a measure of his growing support in Florida, Trump cajoled state Republicans into jettisoning a loyalty pledge required of candidates seeking to be on the presidential primary ballot in March.
The FiveThirtyEight poll averages from Sept. 30: Trump 54. 8%, DeSantis 14. 1%.
In a speech in West Palm Beach, Trump presented a logo 2. 0 of politics that was far more rhetorically competitive and caustic in its attacks on his enemies.
He warned DeSantis not to run for the White House in 2028.
“I think he blew it for four years. You never know what’s going to happen, but in ’28 I don’t see that happening,” Trump told a crowd of supporters. “I’ll never be able to do it because it’s a wonderful disloyalty. “
While Trump has faced pushback from Republicans for his comments following Hamas’ attacks on Israel, calling Hezbollah “very smart” and criticizing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, polls appear to have hurt him.
The averages of the FiveThirtyEight polls received on Oct. 31: Trump 57. 1%, DeSantis 13. 9%.
The split-screen belonged to Trump.
The Republican National Committee held its third Republican presidential election debate in Miami on Nov. 8.
Trump again skipped the encounter, but this time he scheduled his own event to compete with it. In Hialeah, about a dozen miles from the downtown Miami debate site, Trump staged a rally that drew thousands, and was spiced with R-rated language and dystopian viewpoints.
“This is going to hell,” Trump said.
The duels ensued as Trump stepped up his rhetoric, adding his Nazi formulations. DeSantis has secured a key in Iowa, that of popular governor of the state, which has given him oxygen in what will be the first caucuses of the first season.
The averages of the FiveThirtyEight polls received on Nov. 30: Trump, 60%, DeSantis 12. 6%.
Trump again called for the elimination of Obamacare, the nation’s top physical health insurance plan. The appeal drew criticism. But even in Florida, which leads the nation in enrollment, opposition to the program has never been politically costly for critics of the fitness program.
In Iowa, DeSantis celebrated the achievement of a crusading goal: making a stopover in one of the state’s 99 counties.
Trump skipped the last GOP debate, this one in Alabama, where his intellectual fitness for the task sparked fights among the remaining candidates.
That being said, a Des Moines Register/NBC News/Mediacom Iowa Poll put Trump at 51% among Republican caucus-goers, up from 43% in an October survey.
FiveThirtyEight polling averages onDec. 27: Trump 61.2%, DeSantis 11.7%.
Antonio Fins is the political and business editor of the Palm Beach Post, part of the USA TODAY Florida network. He can be reached at afins@pbpost. com. Help our journalism. Subscribe today.
This article originally published on the Palm Beach Post: Election: How Donald Trump is ending 2023 ahead of DeSantis in the polls
Advertising
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertising
Advertising
Advertising
Advertisement
Advertisement
Advertising
Advertising
Advertising