Based in the United Kingdom, Tropical Storm Risk is an organization that forecasts tropical cyclones and assesses climate-related damage risks.
Adam Lea, TSR principal investigator, spoke about the source of his work with the organization and reasoning of TSR prediction for a below-average 2023 Atlantic hurricane season.
TSR grew out of a collaborative program between the university and the insurance industry, which included some support.
“There was a collaborative effort between academia and [the insurance industry] in the 1990s called TSUNAMI,” Lea explained. “A tropical typhoon tracking site built in the early 2000s, and I joined [TSR] in late 2002.
“Since then, I’ve been concerned about seasonal forecasts. Around 2008, the business side evolved with underwriting products to help the [insurance] industry manage tropical cyclone risks,” Lea added.
TSR Forecasting Models
The company uses its weather forecasting models to make cyclone forecasts and also takes into account forecasts from major weather organizations around the world. TSR cyclone forecasts are for the North Atlantic and Northwest Pacific areas.
“We have our own statistical models for seasonal forecasting of tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic and Pacific Northwest up to several months before the peak season,” Lea explained.
“For tropical cyclone tracking, we use typhoon warnings from the [U. S. National Hurricane Center]UU. ] and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. “We are in the U. S. ],” Lea said.
“For seasonal forecasts, we used one of our statistical models with the ‘ENSO’ forecast [which stands for El Niño, Southern Oscillation] from IRI [International Institute for Climate and Society Research],” Lea said.
2023 Atlantic Season Forecast
TSR has released its forecast for the 2023 Atlantic hurricane season, with news for the U. S. Virgin Islands. According to its report, a below-average season is forecast in terms of cyclone numbers. However, there is still a lot of uncertainty and many months before the start of the 2023 season.
“TSR forecasts that hurricane activity in the North Atlantic in 2023 will be approximately 15% below the 30-year 1991-2020 norm and close to the long-term norm of 1950-2022. There are wonderful uncertainties in this outlook,” according to TSR. official website.
“Our forecast [2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season] is based on the expected trend of the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) over the next nine months,” Lea said. “Lately we are in ‘La Niña’ conditions, which have peaked around [the time of provision] and are expected to weaken during the winter and next spring. “
“Many models expect a shift to weak El Niño situations as we enter the summer of next year, which would act to suppress tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic. At this point, it will be under pressure that uncertainties related to ENSO’s evolution until next year are very uncertain,” Lea added.
Lea provides more main points about ENSO as it relates to meteorology.
“ENSO stands for El Niño, Southern Oscillation and refers to the oscillation of sea temperature anomalies in the Eastern Equatorial Pacific (warm = El Niño, cold = La Niña). Changes in sea temperature and wind are closely related.
Damage risk assessment
Assessing the risk of damage from extreme weather events is another purpose of TSR for preparing Americans.
“Much of our contribution to threat assessment comes from advertising products that demonstrate old and projected areas,” Lea said. “We hope to expand maps to map tropical cyclone precipitation and typhoon storm surge threat. “
Indications of affectations of the USVI or Puerto Rico in 2023
While the precise amount of tropical activity in the upcoming season is still unknown, ancient knowledge possibly provides clues as to how cyclones might have an effect on the U. S. Virgin Islands or Puerto Rico.
“Historically, landings in the Caribbean tend to be similar to the point of activity in the main Atlantic progression region, which is the region explained as 10-20N [latitude], 60-20W [longitude]. The activity in the MDR is similar to anomalies in sea surface temperature and the strength of the industry’s winds,” Lea said.
“Based on existing forecasts, we expect the landing in and around the Caribbean to be below average. However, as you know, it only takes one big typhoon to make it an active season for the unfortunate victims, which can occur even in a quiet year overall,” Lea explained.
“Residents of hurricane-prone spaces deserve to be prepared in advance, no matter what the seasonal forecast may indicate,” Lea said.
Source readers and VICU are encouraged to stay abreast of weather systems on the V. I. Source weather page and register for alerts from the National Weather Service and the Virgin Islands Territorial Emergency Management Agency.
Related links: UK government TSUNAMI initiative website, tropical storm risk website, TSR extended range forecast for North Atlantic hurricane activity in 2023, International Institute for Climate and Society Research, Joint Typhoon Warning Centre, National Hurricane Centre
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