Russian forces reportedly penetrated the eastern Bakhmut lines in the Donetsk region of Ukraine, although their overall impact is perceived through experts as tactically minimal and usually symbolic.
The pro-Russian Telegram channel Rybar reported Wednesday that Russians had crossed the lines, just days after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Russian shelling had turned the city into rubble. Donetsk is one of the 4 regions annexed through Moscow in September.
While the report can be independently verified via Newsweek, the Washington-based think tank, the Institute for the Study of War (ISW), showed that Russian military forces have continued an offensive in the region, stopping before confirming or denying whether the outer rim has been breached.
ISW quoted Rybar when it discussed that Russian mercenaries, who were part of the Wagner Group, had established the entirety of Bakhmut Champagne Winery and Siniat in Bakhmut.
The Wagner Group is a paramilitary organization that includes mercenaries from the Russian state-linked Wagner personal army corporation, which formed the 2014 Donbass War in eastern Ukraine and Russia’s annexation of Crimea.
An unnamed senior Pentagon official said Tuesday that intense “heavy” fighting was taking place in the Donbass region as the Russians continued their attempts to take Bakhmut. Before the annexation of Russia, Donetsk and Luhansk formed Donbass.
“Russia continues to employ missile and drone movements opposed to Ukraine’s power grid and civilian infrastructure, causing extensive damage and killing innocent civilians from Russia’s illegal invasion and brutal occupation,” the official said.
Maria Popova, an associate professor of political science at McGill University, told Newsweek that Bakhmut is strategically or militarily important.
“The political importance of ling Bakhmut as a total is also minor: capturing a small city destroyed after a protracted war will not imply that Russia has regained momentum in the war,” Popova said. “Even with Bakhmut, Russia will continue to lose ground overall. “
He said the importance is tied to Putin’s best friend, Yevgeny Prigozhin, founder of the Wagner Group, and the group’s ability to replace the course of the war.
“Whether it succeeds or not, it may have a political outcome in the internal dynamics of the regime: a captured Bajmut strengthens Prigozhin’s hand, but not decisively, as it would be a Pyrrhic victory,” he added.
William Reno, professor and president of Northwestern University’s political science branch, told Newsweek that small advances can be seen as minor tactical victories for Russia.
“This ‘victory’ comes at the expense of munitions and personnel, which are fostered through Russian efforts to identify defensive positions on the front,” Reno said. “Russian activities around Bakhmut would possibly involve differences within the Russian military and political leadership. “
While Prigozhin would likely see the scenario as strengthening his own position in Moscow, Reno said, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu appears to be in the status quo of a solid defensive posture.
Chris Jensen, an associate professor of political science at the University of Snow, Las Vegas, echoed the perspectives of Russian leaders like Putin and Prigozhin who leverage every single imaginable victory to bolster their own prestige through state media.
Jensen also told Newsweek that Europe “is more united than ever in seeing Russia as a threat,” pointing to NATO enlargement to include Finland and Sweden, increased European military spending, a move away from dependence on Russian oil and gas, and monetary and military aid to Ukraine.
“A tactical victory at Bakhmut, assuming reports of Russian resources prove reliable, will not replace much of the scenario as a total. . . A Russian victory at Bakhmut [even if they take the entire city] will not replace any of that. Jensen said.
Javed Ali, professor at the Gerald R. School of Public Policy. Ford of the University of Michigan told Newsweek that Bakhmut is a microcosm of the ebbs and flows of the ongoing conflict.
“Over the past year, the Ukrainians and Russians have demonstrated their ability to advance, retain territory and then retreat elsewhere to regroup after casualties and consolidate for long-term operations,” Ali said. gains in Bakhmut as a strategic sign of a new momentum that may continue in other parts of the campaign.
“The reality, however, is very likely to be different, as the war has shown so far. And it is very likely that Ukraine will push anti-Russian formations there or elsewhere in the near future. “
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