Don’t call it back, because my God, Donald Trump never left.
After 22 months of overcoming the invasion of his home, Trump officially re-invited himself into our lives Tuesday night with a decidedly low-energy presidential crusade that features his disgusting combination of anger, lies and grievances.
Trump’s act, which he spent most of last week telegraphing, was all the more so given the context surrounding his resolve to suddenly jump into the waters of the 2024 presidential election cycle: The 2022 ballots weren’t even counted all, and the race for Georgia Senate is headed for a runoff. and yet here comes Trump, threatening to disrupt the GOP’s chances in 2024, as well as some of his remaining hopes in 2022. The Republican Party’s drastically reduced midterm functionality carries the former president’s tiny fingerprints everywhere. That’s probably why, with an emotionless face, Trump called his participation an “unprecedented success. “
There are many in the Republican fold who are willing to agree with this assessment. It was the third election in a row in which Trump did as much damage to his supposed party as he did to help it. Basically, it set off a new round of alarm bells on the right, adding a new note of urgency to Trump’s latest boomlet, though it actually looks like this iteration is a bit more serious than any of the others. Even Rupert Murdoch’s media empire opposes Trump (again, anyway).
It’s a familiar crossroads for the Republican Party: Is it time to break with the party’s standard-bearer?Once again, they returned to this fork on the basis of some understandable instincts: Trump is notoriously toxic; It’s also incredibly addictive. But there’s one question the Republican Party other than Trump hasn’t been able to answer, or hasn’t had the courage to ask, since it began winning the presidential primary in 2016: What’s the end game?What is the path to a viable Republican Party even without Trump?
Spoiler alert: does not exist. It’s a suicide mission.
Let’s review the imaginable scenarios, in descending order of probability.
Let’s say Trump wins the nomination again. Long before he entered the 2016 presidential race, the right provoked some anti-Trump grunts. It periodically sprouts openly when it does something crazy like attacking golden star families (repeatedly) or, you know. . . send an angry crowd to attack the Capitol. However, Trump resists and it is not long before party leaders bow again.
Axios may cite fallen polls and call Trump “oppressed,” but Trump remains the presumptive front-runner unless and until the Republican electorate rejects him in the full-blown primaries. Who should accept this bet? Trump connects with the Republican Party base, feels their pain, then amplifies it and channels it. In this sense, he will be one step ahead of any alleged number one locker who approaches to try to take the crown.
It is true, despite his “emptying the swamp” verbiage on Tuesday and his ritual denunciation of the “Washington status quo [that] needs to silence us,” that Trump is no longer an outsider in whom the electorate can pin their hopes. and, above all, their fears. But Trump’s call was never based on politics. It was a presidency built on mood, resentment and truculence. above” a data security policy query. Vibe, all the way down.
Would a Trump nomination in 2024 represent for the Republican Party?He has won before and can also win again. It would possibly be hard to believe that the country lacks more Trump after 8 unforgiving years, but the 2020 result was pretty close considering the apocalyptic incompetence Trump has shown during the pandemic. But win or lose, the party would be even more intertwined with the Trump brand.
But what if Trump loses the nomination? This is where we can measure the exact sharpness of the horns of the Republican Party’s dilemma. Does anyone believe that Donald Trump will be a kind loser?This is a guy who denounced the Republican primary and the 2016 general election, either of which he won, as “rigged. “He has a consistent playbook that he’s been following. long before he pointed to a mob lynching his own vice president. Most likely, Trump will start beating the “rigged” drum long before he loses the nomination.
Possibly it would not prevent there. Part of Trump’s longevity comes from his connection to the Republican base (his human political shields). But it also comes from his psychopathic narcissism. Many political regulations simply do not apply to Trump, because they are based on fundamental degrees of honesty, integrity, loyalty. . . Hell, even misfortune: what makes for foolish qualities. Mendacity and behave accordingly. Donald continues to deceive relentlessly, spitting out his false and conspiracy theories. The twisted status quo is still depriving him, and America!, of another excellent victory.
It is highly unlikely to believe that Trump will waste a Republican Party presidential number one without also imagining that he would promptly unleash a third-party race or order his supporters to boycott the general election, or both. Given the polarized nature of the country, he probably wouldn’t want many voters to deliver; Only a small percentage in some key states could simply doom Trump’s would-be successor. Would violence, perhaps at the 2024 Republican convention, be out of the question?This is a guy who lifted up a crowd and directed it to his own vice president, then fortunately saw it had a wild time. And they gave it to him, because the Republicans themselves forgave him.
He is willing to sell the country to retain his power. Does anyone think they would hesitate to sell out the Republican Party?No, it would be Trump as Khan at the end of Star Trek II, beaten, burned, bleeding and vengeful: “You can’t get out of this. From the center of hell, I stab you! Out of hatred, I spit out my Last breath in you!(The main differences would be that Trump wouldn’t subpoena Melville and the GOP wouldn’t be able to distort itself to be sure. )
Trump can also be impeached. Serious question: Do GOP regulations prevent someone from running for a job if they are charged or jailed?Part of the explanation for the announcement is because he believes he will do so from the investigations he faces. He will denounce any attempt to bring him to justice as political persecution, and his supporters will eat him. Most likely, this will bring the Republican establishment, such as it is, under the Trump banner.
And who knows? Perhaps Trump will fail thanks to the intervention of a deus ex machina. Here’s the “gnomes in their underwear” scenario: Step One: Trump Announces; Step for now: ?; Step three: Trump surrenders. Perhaps his physical condition will force him to abandon the race and the stage. Maybe you have a total change of personality. Maybe you shouldn’t bet on either outcome. One theory that has endured for so many years is that they (whoever they are) will make you an offer you can’t refuse: an escape from prosecution in exchange for a quiet exit. Can he be offered something he can’t do himself once he returns to the Oval Office?
But if there’s one constant, it’s the lack of a smart situation for the Republican Party. Win, lose or draw, the party will need a long time to get rid of the Faustian agreement it achieved in 2015, and there is each and every one. Explanation of why suspect that this is a fear you will try to avoid facing. Trump is a parasite so tied to his host that he cannot be safely rid of or left intact. It is a pact of human political suicide that the Republican party cannot escape lately.
Robert Schlesinger is a political commentator and commentator for White House Ghosts: Presidents and Their Speechwriters.