Regardless, Donald Trump is expected to confirm his goal of running for president in a “special announcement” at his Mar-a-Lago hotel on Tuesday night.
In the nearly two years since leaving office, Trump has hinted that he would attempt a third race for the White House while continually insisting on the false claim that he lost the 2020 race to Joe Biden due to widespread voter fraud.
Meanwhile, Trump showed himself to be the heavy favorite not only to win the Republican nomination in 2024, but also to win the next election.
However, Trump’s reputation has particularly waned after he is widely blamed for the GOP’s poor midterm performance, in which the party has yet to win a majority in the House and failed to take the Senate away from Democrats.
But it’s not just the American electorate that may obstruct Trump’s chances of becoming president again, with a host of outside influences also in the next two years.
The prospect of Trump being punished for the number of investigations he faces will weigh on his presidential campaign.
The former president may still face fraud charges as part of Justice Decomponentment’s fraud investigation into the Jan. 6 attack and attempts to overturn the effects of the 2020 presidential election.
The House Select Committee investigating the Capitol riots, which concluded its live performances in October, is expected to deliver its final report on the insurgency by the end of the year, which could come with a recommendation that the Justice Department indict Trump.
Trump is also under investigation in Georgia, where a Fulton County special grand jury is hearing evidence that he and his allies committed a crime in their attempts to overturn the 2020 election in several states.
Separately, the Trump organization is recently involved in a corrupt tax evasion trial, in which the former president is not charged with any crime, but which is taking a stand throughout a parallel civil investigation in the office of New York Attorney General Letitia James over the allegations. that Trump and his family business circle inflated or undervalued a number of assets to make profits like higher bank loans and reduced tax bills.
Trump has reportedly wanted to launch a new presidential crusade to try to combat his legal troubles, hoping prosecutors will be more cautious about bringing potentially historic thieves charges against a former president running again.
“It’s hard for the federal government to pursue a predicted presidential candidate,” Michael Binder, a political science professor at the University of North Florida, told Newsweek. “There’s just not much precedent for that. And I’m not saying it. “It can’t or possibly wouldn’t happen. I’m just saying it’s hard to do.
“However, in general, presidential candidates are a little more of their criminal past. Everything is new with Donald Trump and has been for seven years. So, who knows,” he said.
Since the midterm results, in which MAGA was passed through Trump and applicants rejected the election wasting their careers across the country, several conservative figures and media corporations now claim that Florida Governor Ron DeSantis is the new figure who will lead 2024.
DeSantis, who was re-elected in Florida without Trump’s approval, was widely recognized as the front-runner in the 2024 Republican number one along with the former president.
To further bolster his credentials, DeSantis 7 is ahead of Trump on a YouGov America ballot after the midterm (42% to 35%), when Republican voters were asked who they wanted to be the Republican nominee in 2024.
Though not even on the ballot, the 2022 midterm elections were seen as a prime test of Trump’s strength of charm heading into 2024, as many of his approved candidates ran across the country.
With many of Trump’s top candidates largely squandering their elections, the hypothesis of whether Trump can still convince voters across the country to vote for him in the general election is even more uncertain.
“Trump thrives when he is loved. But the effects show that many have abandoned it,” Matt Qvortrup, a professor of political science and foreign relations at Coventry University, told Newsweek. The lack of policy means it will most likely not appeal to the electorate beyond the narrow base that in the past supported it. “
“He’s already lost the popular vote twice, most likely he will do it again, especially if Democrats can push issues like abortion,” Qvortrup added.
Speaking of the midterm effects being a genuine referendum on Trump, Binder used an analogy of how a TV comedy spin-off is “almost never as good” as the original show.
“There’s magic there that’s hard to replicate, so just because the spin-off fails, I don’t know if I would throw away the original yet,” Binder said.
If Trump needs to hold on to power, he will also have to fight a possible revolt of more moderate Republicans who have personally blamed him for the GOP’s midterm results.
In the days after Nov. 8, Maryland’s Republican governor, Larry Hogan, said the left with Trump in 2024 would be the “definition of insanity. “
Incumbent Republican Sen. Pat Toomey of Pennsylvania said the former president’s “disastrous role” is a “big factor” in the GOP’s poor midterm functionality. Georgia Republican Lt. Gen. Geoff Duncan also told CNN that the midterm effects turn out that Trump is now “in the rearview mirror” of the Republican Party and that it’s time for the party to move on.
It’s not just within his own party that Trump may see a backlash before 2024. Investigations into the former president, as well as the emergence of DeSantis, may trigger a number of Republican primary donors to consider supporting Trump as well. A lot of headache.
“By speaking out early, Trump is repairing his influence and potentially transparent the box of competitors,” Joshua Scacco, associate professor and associate chair of the communications branch at the University of South Florida, told Newsweek.
“However, we don’t know if a forward-looking announcement can prevent Republican elites, adding donors and elected officials, from wondering if a third Trump term is for the Republican Party,” he said.
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