As Donald Trump launches a third race for the White House, Iowa remains friendly territory for the former president, even if Iowa Republicans say they are open, and even willing, to listen to other candidates.
A Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa ballot suggests that a wide diversity of Iowa Republicans remain committed to Trump’s 2024 candidacy, even as others say they are in a position for someone new.
In July, the Iowa ballot found that 57% of Iowa Republicans said they expected Trump to run for president in 2024. Another 33% said they expected it not and 10% were unsure. The same ballot found that 57% of all Iowans expected him not to run.
Some prominent Iowa Republicans, such as Bob Vander Plaats, president of the conservative Christian organization The Family Leader, have more openly opposed a new Trump candidacy.
“I think it’s time to turn the page,” said Vander Plaats, who supported Trump’s opponent, Ted Cruz, in the 2016 election cycle. “It’s time to put your strength behind some other candidate who can win in 2024. “
Others on the fence.
Former Iowa Gov. Terry Branstad was a staunch collaborator to Trump’s campaigns in 2016 and 2020, and served as the Trump administration’s ambassador to China. But on Wednesday morning, Branstad said he had not made a decision on whether he would help Trump in 2024.
“I’m going to make a resolution soon, I’ve never done it,” Branstad told reporters. “But I’m encouraged by the fact that we have a lot of potential applicants coming here. “
Trump’s announcement follows a disappointing midterm cycle for Republicans, who, despite a deeply unpopular Democratic president in Joe Biden, failed to take the U. S. Senate. The U. S. Department of Homeland Security achieved smaller-than-expected gains in the U. S. House of Representatives. U. S.
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After the election, some Republicans openly blamed Trump, who promoted what they saw as underperforming extremist candidates on Election Day. Many suggested that he postpone the launch of his campaign until the end of the momentary circular of the December elections. in Georgia, fearing that his presence would further damage the Republican Party’s chances there.
“Voters talked and said they were looking for another leader,” Virginia Lt. Gen. Winsome Sears, a Republican, said just after the election. “And a true leader understands when it’s a responsibility. “
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But in Iowa, Republicans performed exceptionally well, removing Democratic incumbents from congressional and statewide seats while expanding their legislative majorities. Republican strategist Eric Woolson attributes those victories to Gov. Kim Reynolds, not Trump.
“The total Trump logo is meant to be about winning,” Woolson said. “When you don’t win, it takes a lot of shine off your logo. “
Vander Plaats fears Trump is leading the party in that direction. He said he believes Iowa Republicans “fear that a debate about the afterlife rather than a long-term vision will convince us. “
On Tuesday night, Trump announced his candidacy in the golden hallways of his Florida Mar-a-Lago home as “to make America wonderful and great again. “
He said the country “is in serious trouble” and sought to channel the foreign mindset of his 2016 campaign.
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“This is a task for a politician or a traditional candidate,” he said. “This is a task for a wonderful motion that embodies the courage, confidence and spirit of the American people. It is a motion. It’s for any specific individual. “
An October ballot in Iowa found that Iowa Republicans continue to view Trump favorably, though their numbers are down since September 2021. In October, he earned favorable ratings from 83 percent of Republicans, up from 91 percent last fall.
Trump received a warm welcome in Sioux City earlier this month, where he attended a rally of Iowa Republicans before the midterm and shared an event with Gov. Kim Reynolds, U. S. Sen. Chuck Grassley and others.
But Democrats are already preparing to oppose him. The Democratic National Committee announced Tuesday that it will send communications to Iowa and other states in advance in preparation for the 2024 Republican presidential primary.
“Republicans lost because of their excessive MAGA calendar and we are already laying the groundwork to continue to hold them accountable to that calendar for the next two years,” DNC communications director Kristen Orthman said in a statement.
Despite some midway doubts, Trump will enter the Iowa caucus cycle as the frontrunner, and many Iowans are thinking about his return.
Sisters Brenda Vodensteine, Barb Kreber and Julie Phillips attended Trump’s rally in Sioux City in early November to feel energized ahead of the election. They were eager for Trump to run in 2024.
“He has the courage to stand up,” Bob Phillips, 67, Julie’s husband.
“He’s the one who’s fearless enough,” Vodensteine added.
“It makes sense,” Kreber said.
“We had prosperity (when he was in power),” Vodensteine said. “We had security. “
Another Republican electorate is skeptical about a race for Trump in 2024.
Grace Fails lives near Waverly and attended an event in Iowa with former Vice President Mike Pence over the summer. He said he believes Trump “made some very serious mistakes” and would rather see more things.
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“And yet, if (Trump) runs and he’s the choice, I would vote for him,” Fails told the Register in August. “Because I think he did a lot of smart things while he was there. They have collapsed since he left. “
Pence is one of several Republicans who may oppose Trump for the 2024 nomination. Although Pence has been a staunch supporter of the Trump administration, he said this week in an interview with ABC News that Trump’s moves on Jan. 6 were “reckless. “and put Pence and his family circle at risk.
Another more likely candidate is Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who won his 2022 re-election race by just 20 points. The Washington Post reported that the decisive victory, especially because of the lackluster effects of Trump-approved midterm applicants, puts DeSantis in a smart position. position to challenge Trump on the national stage.
The conservative anti-tax club Club for Growth released a ballot Tuesday showing DeSantis leading Trump through 11 issues among Iowa Republicans, 48 to 37ArrayThat’s an update from August, when the same ballot showed Trump leading from 52 to 37Array.
Trump has already begun his attack on DeSantis, calling him disloyal and coining the nickname “Ron DeSanctimonious. “Trump also took aim at Virginia Gov. Glenn Youngkin, another candidate imaginable in 2024, mocking his call by saying “sounds Chinese. “”
Other potential applicants for 2024 are the former U. S. secretary of state. U. S. Mike Pompeo, the U. S. SenatorTim Scott of South Carolina, former U. N. Ambassador Nikki Haley and conservative radio host Larry Elder. Many applicants have already visited Iowa frequently.
More: Who won the last Democratic and Republican caucuses in Iowa?See the effects of the 2020, 2016 and previous caucuses
Woolson and Vander Plaats agree that there is room for a smart list of candidates for the Iowa caucuses. Woolson predicted that even if Trump wins Iowa, the nation’s most sensible caucuses could reveal weaknesses in his campaign.
“You can win the Iowa caucuses and come out of here a loser because you didn’t win as much as expected,” Woolson said.
However, Vander Plaats believes a victory in Iowa would propel Trump to the nomination. But he says Trump’s victory is “not a foregone conclusion. “
“If Trump wins Iowa, he’ll probably lead the chart after that,” Vander Plaats said. “If he gets arrested in Iowa, I think he’s ruled out for the nomination. “
Tyler Jett contributed to the report.
Brianne Pfannenstiel is the Registry’s lead political reporter. Contact her at bpfann@dmreg. com or 515-284-8244. Follow her on Twitter on @brianneDMR.