1. La internal situation in Russia has deteriorated. The mobilization to reconstitute combat troops in Ukraine, Russia’s first since World War II, is pushing thousands of service-age men to flee the country. Soldiers at the front complain about the lack of uniforms. , inadequate education and inedible food. There are anti-war demonstrations in the streets, with some acts of sabotage. Culturally, Russians are tolerant of government excesses, coercive actions, and the absence of an orderly process. In question, not everything is done in an elegant, orderly and elegant way. Scarcity is a fact of life and has been for decades, especially in the military.
The point of dissent among the other Russians is unlikely to achieve a critical mass leading to a popular uprising. Fear is a factor. The Russian government is notorious for its brutal repression of dissent, dating back to Soviet times. There is also no real procedure for upgrading nutrition with a major one.
WHAT DOES PUTIN THINK? WHERE IS THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE WAR NINE MONTHS AFTER THE INVASION
While Putin’s approval score has fallen about 8% since March, 75% of Russians still approve of his activities and 78. 7% accept it as true, according to Russia-based polling agencies deemed reliable by Western analysts.
2. Reports of emerging dissent in Putin’s inner circle are not credible or are exaggerated. In October, President Joe Biden allegedly obtained sensitive data, as part of his presidential intelligence report, indicating that a member of Putin’s inner circle directly attributes the mishandling of the war in Ukraine to the Russian president. Western intelligence interpreted this data as a sign of discomfort in the Kremlin. But it is highly unlikely that US intelligence has penetrated Putin’s inner circle and could collect secret data on any of its members.
Putin’s circle is incredibly small, made up of former trusted colleagues from the KGB era and his days as a senior official in St. Petersburg. if they were exfiltrated from Russia, in exchange for being spies for the U. S. government. U. S. The dangers are immensely greater if exposed, as the user would be removed quickly. Members of Putin’s inner circle are under constant surveillance and protection. Their communications are monitored through a technical tracking formula called SORM.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE REVIEW BULLETIN
Two other people have blatantly criticized the handling of the war: Internet Research Agency benefactor Yevgeniy Prigozhin, head of Putin’s private team, the Wagner Group, and Ramzan Kadyrov, head of the Chechen Republic. It was that it wasn’t brutal enough as it was too brutal. They are close allies of Putin who would never act against him. Even if they did, it would be to make things worse for Ukraine, not to improve them.
3. La probability of a coup is low. Putin did not conceptualize this war on his own, and it is not an anomaly but a reference when it comes to Russian leadership. He is a typical Russian authoritarian. The combat strategy that Russia employs, adding targeting civilians, was developed, albeit on Putin’s orders, through the General Staff. The destruction of important infrastructures that disadvantaged 80% of Ukraine’s heating, electricity and drinking water is the result of the so-called operation strategy to defeat the critical infrastructure of the adversary. This is how Russia fights: it does not seek to minimize casualties or prevent civilian deaths. Stalin, for example, intentionally did not evacuate civilians from the city before the Battle of Stalingrad because he believed that “soldiers would fight harder for people who are alive than dead. “Putin and those who might oppose him are in the same boat.
Therefore, in 2016, Putin created a special branch, the National Guard or Rosgvardiya, for his regime. Composed of older elite soldiers with decades of service in security agencies, Rosgvardiya’s project is to ensure public order and security and cooperate with Russia. security agency, the FSB, in defense of the Russian state. Rosgvardiya members are notorious for brutally dispersing non-violent protests, arresting and beating opposition members and civil activists.
CLICK HERE TO GET THE FOX NEWS APP
Putin non-publicly chose a close best friend and KGB colleague, Viktor Zolotov, to lead Rosgvardiya. Zolotov began his KGB career in the 1970s as a bodyguard. In the early 1990s, Zolotov was the bodyguard of Anatoly Sobchak, then mayor of St. Petersburg. , President Boris Yeltsin and, of course, Putin himself, who was then deputy mayor of Sobchak. Zolotov, one of Putin’s closest associates, is directly to blame for Putin’s non-public security.
It is not unusual for Western analysts to assign norms of Western habits to Russia and the Putin regime and draw conclusions about the Western mentality. This is called “mirror imaging” in intelligence and behaving like Americans.
CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT REBEKAH KOFFLER
Rebekah Koffler is the president of Doctrine