The United States is already in recession or may soon fall into recession, economists surveyed through the National Association for Business Economics warned on Monday. Impending task losses are increasing.
Nearly two-thirds of business economists surveyed in October’s NABE industry situation survey, the United States is already in recession or likely not to be a year from now.
More than a portion of respondents said there is more than a chance the U. S. will enter recession in the next 12 months, according to the Oct. 3-10 NABE survey of 55 members.
Respondents cited slowing sales, shrinking profit margins and costs, and rising wages as concerns.
More respondents reported a decline in profit margins in the latest quarter, NABE said, for the first time since mid-2020.
The gap between the number of respondents who reported an increase in sales over the past 3 months and those who reported a decline in sales also narrowed, NABE said, falling to 8 percentage points, the lowest point since mid-2020.
Respondents expect profit margins to continue to contract in the coming quarter, and more expect sales to increase rather than decrease.
Fears of layoffs and high unemployment rates go hand in hand with the message of economic recession. Many companies have already begun streamlining the workforce through layoffs or hiring freezes, and the Federal Reserve believes a weaker hard labor market is needed for inflation. of respondents in the NABE survey reported job creation in their company in the last 3 months, up from 38% in the last survey in July. Only 22% expect their companies to develop their workforce in the next quarter, down slightly from the last survey (24%) and less from part of the January survey (50%). Although two-thirds of respondents said wages increased at their company in the last quarter, respondents expect wage prices to drop over the next 3 months to their lowest point since April 2021.
The survey is the latest in a long line of gloomy forecasts for the U. S. economy. UU. La inflation soars around 8%, the highest point in 4 decades, and the Fed has pursued a policy of competitive rate hikes to regain control. Not only, and many other countries face their own economic problems, record levels of inflation, and cost-of-living crises. The International Monetary Fund has downgraded its outlook for the global economy next year and the World Bank has warned there is a “real danger” of a global recession as central banks struggle to combat peak inflation. While many points influence the economy, the double whammy of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the close impact of the Covid-19 pandemic are key. driving forces.
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