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(Bloomberg) — In the nearly 1,000 days since Xi Jinping’s latest overseas adventure, China has found itself increasingly alienated from the U. S. -led global order. Despite everything, he reappears this week with the Russian Vladimir Putin to give his vision of a viable alternative.
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On Thursday, Xi and Putin will hold their first face-to-face meeting since Russia invaded Ukraine, according to the Kremlin, a sign that Beijing sees the date to counter the United States. This will take place on the sidelines of an Uzbekistan-based China security forum that brings together countries ranging from India to Iran, a grouping that aims to push for the formation of a multipolar world.
Before that, Xi will warn Wednesday in Kazakhstan, where he unveiled nine years ago what his Belt and Road industry and infrastructure plan would be. This foreign policy initiative has since had a focal point for the United States and its Group of Seven allies, which announced in June its goal of raising $600 billion in investment so that low-income countries have a choice for Chinese money.
The two rulings will reinforce Xi’s vision of a global world in which China can expand its interests without worrying about the risk of U. S. economic or military tension. The Chinese leader will define the program at a two-decade-old party congress next month, which he is expected to win a third term at the helm of the world’s second-largest economy.
“Xi Jinping must reorient global affairs in a direction that decentralizes Western institutions and promotes groupings and institutions that are more favorable to China’s global interests and vision,” said Trey McArver, co-founder of the Trivium China research company. In Xi’s meeting with Putin, he added, “it sends a very transparent signal that China continues to lean toward Russia in this conflict. “
Bets are rising for Xi and Putin, who declared a “boundless” friendship just weeks before Russia invaded Ukraine in February. In recent days, Putin noted that Ukraine pushed back Russian forces and reclaimed vast tracts of land, while Xi has been scrambling to take tougher steps to prevent Taiwan from strengthening its relations with the United States and its allies.
So far, China has refused to do anything that links it to U. S. sanctions. Or help Russia win the war, even as Beijing provides diplomatic aid to Putin and ramps up industry with its northern neighbor. China’s interest in helping Russia is more geared toward refuting the U. S. measures. One day they may also be used against Beijing.
After a meeting Monday with outgoing Russian Ambassador Andrey Denisov, senior Chinese diplomat Yang Jiechi said the two countries are working to “promote the progress of foreign order in a more just and moderate direction. “
“China did not interfere to supply Russia with complex weapons or electronic devices during the war,” said Iikka Korhonen, head of studies at the Bank of Finland’s Institute for Economies in Transition. “They are involved so as not to violate those actions, at least not in an apparent way, so there are limits to what the so-called allies are willing to do. “
Moscow has tried to trumpet China for war. Last week, he issued statements quoting Li Zhanshu, China’s No. 3, and told Russian lawmakers that Beijing’s leaders “fully perceive the need for all measures taken by Russia to protect its key interests, we are helping. “
Russia and China will step up their efforts to counter NATO expansion and the U. S. -led crusade toward the two nations, Li also said, according to the TASS news agency. “We will fight in combination with their hegemony and the politics of force,” he said. The comments were not reported through China’s Foreign Ministry or state media.
Last week, Putin attacked U. S. -led democracies at an economic forum in the Russian port city of Vladivostok, whose participants included the leader of the Myanmar-sanctioned coup and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. “Western countries seek to maintain yesterday’s global order that benefits and forces everyone to follow the notorious ‘rules’ that they themselves invented,” Putin said.
Similar sentiments are likely to be expressed at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting. The group, which will meet on 15 and 16 September in the southeastern city of Samarkand, represents 42 per cent of the world’s population and 25 per cent of the world’s gross domestic product.
According to Raffaello Pantucci, a senior researcher at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore. India has moved closer to the United States in recent years, particularly the Quad Group, which also includes Australia and Japan.
Although the SCO is more symbolic than substantial, the economic ties within the organization are crucial. As inflation rises around the world, Russia is a reasonable source of power for members like India.
China’s industrial relations with Moscow have grown despite U. S. sanctions. Russia’s exports to China rose nearly 50% to $40. 8 billion in the first five months of the year, according to IMF data. This includes giant increases in oil and gas.
Putin aims to use talks with Xi to further expand the industry with China and offload more commercial and technological imports to fill the void left by the absence of Western goods due to sanctions, said Vasily Kashin, a Russian-Chinese expert at the Moscow Higher Institute. . China’s exports of cars, TVs and smartphones have helped Russia fill a void as foreign brands flee.
China has acquired only about 40 percent of its coal imports from Russia this year, as the government expected an internal energy crisis, up from 30 percent of it last year, according to customs data. China also recovered Russian shipments of liquefied herbal fuel. at a very advantageous price, since at most other importers avoid fuel. LNG shipments in August hit their highest point in about two years, according to vessel tracking data.
Politically, the stopovers in Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan also provide Xi with a comfortable environment to return to the foreign level ahead of the G20 summit in Bali in November. According to Steve Tsang, director of the China Institute at SOAS University london, Xi is prioritising engagement with “friends and partners” rather than allowing the G20 assembly to be his first stop since the Covid lockdown.
“China and Xi may well set the timetable for this visit, which they cannot be sure for a G20 summit,” he said. “Engagement with the United States and the West is not equally important. “
(Updates with the Kremlin’s announcement on Xi’s talks in the second paragraph)
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