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Russian President Vladimir Putin (left) and Chinese President Xi Jinping pose for a photo of their assembly in Beijing, Feb. 4, 2022. Credit: Alexei Druzhinin—Sputnik/AFP via Getty Images
It’s that everything will happen beyond the last time. When Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin last met at the Beijing Winter Olympics on Feb. 4, the leaders of China and Russia stunned the world by pronouncing an “unlimited” partnership, before Putin stepped aside. Large-scale invasion of Ukraine less than 3 weeks later.
On Thursday, the two strongmen are expected to meet on the sidelines of a summit of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), a nebulous Eurasian political, economic and security organization run by China, in Uzbekistan. COVID-19 pandemic: It will arrive directly from a stopover in neighboring Kazakhstan on Wednesday, and political experts from around the world will scan the assembly for symptoms of tension or bilateral solidarity.
“The assembly will be a strong political signal of China’s support,” said Marcin Kaczmarski, a senior lecturer in security studies at the University of Glasgow. “But I’m sure that translates into tangible effects for Russia in monetary terms. “
China has subsidized the adventurism of Putin’s military in Ukraine, refusing to describe it as an “invasion,” echoing court cases about NATO expansionism that Moscow uses to justify its actions and amplifying Russian propaganda. The footprint of Chinese corporations, especially tech corporations and automakers, in Russia has increased as Western corporations have come out en masse. In May, Russia overtook Saudi Arabia as China’s largest oil supplier, shipping 8. 42 million tons from 5. 42 million in February.
However, Kaczmarski says those measures are biological responses to market forces and that there has been no influx of investments, loans and production functions from the state to sign the full agreement of Chinese politicians. Russia’s failed military crusade likely stunned and angered China’s leaders, he said. Said. Beijing has also been diligent in not sending weapons to Russia that may make it vulnerable to secondary Western sanctions, as its own economy is recovering from its increasingly unsustainable COVID-0 policy.
Read more: Rising prices of China’s COVID 0 policy
Aside from the rhetoric and political matrix, China has actually been relatively measured in terms of curtains for Russia since the Ukraine war, Kaczmarski argues. “Paradoxically, India and Turkey are helping Russia much more than China in the ongoing conflict. “
India has increased its Russian oil imports fivefold over the past year, while Turkey has doubled its Russian oil imports over the same period. In addition, India is a key strategic and military partner of the United States, and Turkey is a member of NATO. and the EU aspirant.
The SCO assembly, which will come with almost all ex-Soviet states, as well as India and America’s best friend Pakistan, highlights the immense difficulty the West faces in actually isolating Russia, in part because of the ambivalent attitudes of the poorest. countries of the “Global South”. And while Putin’s stopover in Iran in July and arms purchases from North Korea underscore Russia’s new pariah status, China remains the key to global supply chains and is almost unlikely to be excluded.
However, given China’s economic woes, xi will most likely be wary of the potential turbulence that would arise from the demagogy of his relationship with Putin. Few analysts expect the two leaders to reaffirm their “unlimited” partnership in Uzbekistan, especially since the occasions beyond six months unequivocally demonstrate that there are, in fact, distinct limits to the extent to which Beijing is willing to Moscow. Already, China’s ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, has returned to “unlimited” rhetoric, saying that in truth, “the essential thing” is “the purposes and principles of the Charter of the United Nations, foreign law, and the fundamental norms governing foreign relations. “In other words, sovereignty comes first.
Meanwhile, Xi hopes the meeting with Putin will regain its national position as a leader resisting perceived intimidation from the West as he prepares to assume a third term at the helm next month, breaking the old protocol that China’s leaders serve only two The 69-year-old Communist Party crown prince would likely seek to bolster his nationalist credentials as relations with the West worsen on trade, technology, human rights and other issues.
Some analysts recommend that Xi use his meeting with Putin to warn the West not to touch China’s red lines, adding Taiwan’s status. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s stopover on the autonomous island, over which Beijing claims sovereignty, in early August was opposed. to unprecedented military exercises, the severing of industrial ties and a diplomatic freeze with Washington. On Sept. 2, the United States approved $1. 1 billion in arms sales to Taiwan, adding 60 anti-ship missiles, one hundred air-to-air missiles and a contractor for a surveillance radar program.
Xi may intend to say to the West: if you insist on criticizing my opponent, why wouldn’t I do the same?”far from Taiwan independence,” said Cheng Li, an expert on elite Chinese politics at the Brookings Institution. “If this is the case, China will show even more for Russia. “