Oregon’s immediate expansion of wages and tasks is generating record revenue for the state that can return an unprecedented $3. 4 billion to taxpayers in 2024, according to the state’s most recent economic forecast.
At the same time, the state’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said the option of a recession is a “coup. “
“The outlook is necessarily a shift between a comfortable landing and a recession,” the office said. “For now, we maintain the baseline, or maximum likely maximum prospects, such as a comfortable landing and continued economic expansion. “
In its forecast this spring, the bureau predicted that Oregon taxpayers would get an extra $3 billion in 2024. The state awards tax refunds from non-public sources of profit (one kicker) every two years when the profit collected exceeds official projections up to 2 Wednesday’s forecast, which analyzed existing economic situations and estimated state gains from the existing two-year budget cycle, which ends june 30, 2023, indicated that the next “coup” could succeed at $3. 4 billion.
Taxpayers would get the refund in the form of credits when they file their tax return in 2024. The amount a taxpayer would get over the amount of taxes they paid. The average rebate would be $700 to $800, said Josh Lerner, an economist with the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
That’s nearly double what taxpayers earned this year. This year’s non-public source of revenue kicker amounted to $1. 9 billion.
Kickers are also calculated on the company’s revenue. Forecasts expect the corporate tax kicker to reach a total of $1. 1 billion in 2024, above this spring’s forecast of $931 million. However, corporations get this cash back. The corporate kicker is maintained through government and used for school spending.
But sometime over the next two years, Oregon’s economy will plummet as customer spending and task expansion deteriorate, forecasts warned. The timing and severity of this slowdown remains a matter of debate, according to forecasts.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the recession rate remains “uncomfortably high. “
Rising inflation can lead to a recession. Forecasters said that if inflation persists, Oregon could simply enjoy a recession through the third quarter of 2023, leading to job losses, stagnant profits and declining customer spending and corporate profits.
If that happens, it would have a big impact on the state, according to forecasts.
“The recession would weigh heavily on (the state’s) revenues over the next few years,” the forecast said.
But Oregon can also revel in a comfortable economic landing, according to forecasts.
At the moment, government revenues are plentiful.
“Growth in Oregon’s major earnings tools continues to exceed expectations,” according to the forecast. “Corporate and personal tax collections remain strong, in line with the source of profits in the underlying economy. “
Democrats welcomed the forecasts and said they were validating their policies and public spending programs.
Sen. Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego and majority leader in the state Senate, said, “Oregon’s economy remains strong. Oregon Senate Democrats’ investments in housing, education and child care are paying off. “
He gave no details, but Democratic leadership and amid a booming economy, the state legislature allocated millions of additional dollars for health care, housing and other programs.
The state House Majority Leader, Rep. Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, also commented on the forecast. small businesses,” Fahey said. This means focusing our investments on reducing the burden of living, solving the existing affordable housing crisis, creating stronger schools, our child care infrastructure, and supporting small businesses. “
Gov. Kate Brown also commented, “With the emerging charge of living having an effect on Oregon families and businesses, the Legislature can, in the next biennium’s budget, leverage the investments we made during the last session, namely in housing, workforce, development, behavioral fitness, and childcare.
Forecasts imply that oregon government revenue and economic activity depend on a variety of factors.
“Although the hard-working source of revenue expansion has been very strong, much of the flood of tax collections from non-public sources of revenue (by the state) in 2022 can be attributed to forms of income from non-wage sources,” according to forecasts. . Non-wage income source includes sources of business and rental income, dividends, capital gains, and retirements from retirement accounts.
“As tax returns from high-income tax filers begin to arrive, this expansion in the business source of income and investments is proving to be more potent every day,” the forecasters said.
Households have only benefited from wage increases, but have also accumulated savings since the start of the pandemic, while indebtedness has remained below old trends, according to forecasts.
“Consumers don’t really lack firepower if they need to spend and are worried about potential job losses in the future,” according to forecasts.
Oregon’s public policies play a role in inflation, according to forecasts.
Many contracts are loosely related to inflation, and higher inflation “could lead to higher wage increases for civil servants in the future,” he said.
Oregon’s minimum wage has risen in recent years in a series of bumps and, starting in 2023, will be tied to the Consumer Price Index, which will follow inflation. The index tracks the charge of goods and services. Forecasts expect the minimum wage to accrue up to 5% from July 1.
Oregon’s hiring stabilization law will likely allow hiring increases of about 14% in 2023, according to forecasts.
Oregon’s unemployment rate, recently around 4%, is likely to reach 4. 6% by the end of 2024, according to forecasts. “This is what a comfortable landing would look like,” according to forecasts.
by Christian Wihtol, Oregon Capital Chronicle August 31, 2022
Oregon’s immediate expansion of wages and tasks is generating record revenue for the state that can return an unprecedented $3. 4 billion to taxpayers in 2024, according to the state’s most recent economic forecast.
At the same time, the state’s Bureau of Economic Analysis said the option of a recession is a “coup. “
“The outlook is necessarily a shift between a comfortable landing and a recession,” the office said. “For now, we maintain the baseline, or maximum likely maximum prospects, such as a comfortable landing and continued economic expansion. “
In its forecast this spring, the bureau predicted that Oregon taxpayers would get an extra $3 billion in 2024. The state awards tax refunds from non-public sources of profit (one kicker) every two years when the profit collected exceeds official projections up to 2 Wednesday’s forecast, which analyzed existing economic situations and estimated state gains from the existing two-year budget cycle, which ends june 30, 2023, indicated that the next “coup” could succeed at $3. 4 billion.
Taxpayers would get the refund in the form of credits when they file their tax return in 2024. The amount a taxpayer would get over the amount of taxes they paid. The average rebate would be $700 to $800, said Josh Lerner, an economist with the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
That’s nearly double what taxpayers earned this year. This year’s non-public source of revenue amounted to $1. 9 billion.
Kickers are also calculated on the company’s revenue. Forecasts expect the corporate tax kicker to reach a total of $1. 1 billion in 2024, above this spring’s forecast of $931 million. However, corporations get this cash back. The corporate kicker is maintained through government and used for school spending.
But sometime over the next two years, Oregon’s economy will plummet as customer spending and task expansion deteriorate, forecasts warned. The timing and severity of this slowdown remains a matter of debate, according to forecasts.
The Bureau of Economic Analysis said the recession rate remains “uncomfortably high. “
Rising inflation can lead to a recession. Forecasters said that if inflation persists, Oregon could simply enjoy a recession through the third quarter of 2023, leading to job losses, stagnant profits and declining customer spending and corporate profits.
If that happens, it would have a big impact on the state, according to forecasts.
“The recession would weigh heavily on (the state’s) revenues over the next few years,” the forecast said.
But Oregon can also revel in a comfortable economic landing, according to forecasts.
At the moment, government revenues are plentiful.
“Growth in Oregon’s major earnings tools continues to exceed expectations,” according to forecasts. “Personal and corporate tax collection remains strong, in line with the source of profit in the underlying economy. “
Democrats welcomed the forecasts and said they were validating their policies and public spending programs.
Sen. Rob Wagner, D-Lake Oswego and majority leader in the state Senate, said, “Oregon’s economy remains strong. Oregon Senate Democrats’ investments in housing, education and child care are paying off. “
He gave no details, but Democratic leadership and amid a booming economy, the state legislature allocated millions of additional dollars for health care, housing and other programs.
The state House Majority Leader, Rep. Julie Fahey, D-Eugene, also commented on the forecast. small businesses,” Fahey said. This means focusing our investments on reducing the burden of living, solving the existing affordable housing crisis, creating stronger schools, our child care infrastructure, and supporting small businesses. “
Gov. Kate Brown also commented, “With the emerging charge of living having an effect on Oregon families and businesses, the Legislature can, in the next biennium’s budget, leverage the investments we made during the last session, namely in housing, workforce, development, behavioral fitness, and childcare.
Forecasts imply that oregon government revenue and economic activity depend on a variety of factors.
“Although the hard-working source of revenue expansion has been very strong, much of the flood of tax collections from non-public sources of revenue (by the state) in 2022 can be attributed to forms of income from non-wage sources,” according to forecasts. . Non-wage income source includes sources of business and rental income, dividends, capital gains, and retirements from retirement accounts.
“As tax returns from high-income tax filers begin to arrive, this expansion in the business source of income and investments is proving to be more potent every day,” the forecasters said.
Households have only benefited from wage increases, but they have also accumulated savings since the start of the pandemic, while indebtedness has remained under old trends, according to forecasts.
“Consumers don’t really lack firepower if they need to spend and are worried about potential job losses in the future,” according to forecasts.
Oregon’s public policies play a role in inflation, according to forecasts.
Many contracts are loosely related to inflation, and higher inflation “could lead to higher wage increases for civil servants in the future,” he said.
Oregon’s minimum wage has risen in recent years in a series of bumps and, starting in 2023, will be tied to the Consumer Price Index, which will follow inflation. The index tracks the charge of goods and services. Forecasts expect the minimum wage to accrue up to 5% from July 1.
Oregon’s hiring stabilization law will likely allow hiring increases of about 14% in 2023, according to forecasts.
Oregon’s unemployment rate, recently around 4%, is likely to reach 4. 6% by the end of 2024, according to forecasts. “This is what a comfortable landing would look like,” according to forecasts.
Oregon Capital Chronicle belongs to States Newsroom, a network of news offices backed by grants and a coalition of donors as a 501c(3) public charity. Oregon Capital Chronicle maintains its editorial independence. Please contact Editor-in-Chief Lynne Terry if you have any questions: info@oregoncapitalchronicle. com. Follow oregon capital chronicle on Facebook and Twitter.
Christian Wihtol is a veteran journalist and editor, who served as editor-in-chief, economic editor and government editor for Register-Guard in Eugene for approximately 30 years. He holds a Master of Business Administration.
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