German officials breathed a timid sigh of relief last week, when Russian fuel began flowing through the Nord Stream 1 pipeline back to the European Union after its 10-day annual maintenance, only to turn that relief into frustration a few days later, when Russia’s Gazprom announced it would further reduce fuel deliveries to just 20% of the pipeline’s capacity.
The easing in fuel deliveries appeared to confirm fears among many European leaders that Russia would use its energy materials as leverage against its EU. This also highlighted the biggest challenge looming on the horizon: Germany, a country of 83 million people and Europe’s largest economy relies heavily on Russian energy imports, which are imperative for heating homes and powering German factories, among others. What happens if, as winter approaches, Russia cuts off fuel altogether?
German leaders are scrambling to prepare for this eventuality and the broader military crisis it could trigger, pronouncing a series of new measures to reduce fuel consumption and prepare other military resources to make up for shortages. “Russia is the wonderful force that Ray has. . . to blackmail Europe,” Robert Habeck, Germany’s vice chancellor and economy minister, said last week. “We want to prepare for winter. “
By the end of June, Germany had almost halved the proportion of its fuel source from Russia, from 55% in February before the invasion of Ukraine to 26%. However, experts say that’s not enough for a winter without shortages.
Meanwhile, high energy costs and higher inflation mean that Germany is already feeling the effects of the energy crisis. On Friday, Foreign Minister Olaf Scholz announced the rescue of energy supplier Uniper, the country’s largest importer of Russian fuel, which has been in difficulty since the slowdown in fuel flows. Meanwhile, some Berliners have said their heating costs may double this winter.
While Germany is far from the only European country affected lately due to its long-standing shortage of Russian fuel, part of its greater vulnerability is due to its lack of significant domestic fuel opportunities or resources. As part of its long-term transition to the blank force, or Energiewfinishe, the country had already begun to move away from force resources it might otherwise have used to make up for fuel shortages; the country plans to phase out coal until 2030 and close its remaining nuclear power plants until the end of this year.
But preparing for a potential energy crisis in the worst-case scenario has led Germany to temporarily allow the reopening of several coal-fired power plants closed in the past starting in October, and some officials have even recommended the option of keeping nuclear power plants open until the end. of the year. year.
Most sensitively, the officials’ most recent plan, announced on July 21, calls for Germany’s strategic fuel storage reserves, established earlier this year in reaction to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, to be 75 percent complete by Sept. 1 and 85 percent by October. . 1 and 95% through November 1, faster than expected. These reserves have been around 67%.
However, even if they were one hundred percent full, they would last a little all winter. With the existing consumption rates, the German government has estimated that the stored fuel can fully cover Germany’s energy desires for two to three months. As a result, experts warn that steps will have to be taken now to avoid painful shortages.
“It’s a serious situation, but it’s not unmanageable,” says Claudia Kemfert, a senior economist at the German Institute for Economic Research. “It’s in our hands whether it’s smart or bad. . . we can [the worst-case scenario] if we do a lot of things now. “
In addition to expanding and diversifying its energy source for later, on July 21, the government announced plans to immediately reduce total fuel consumption, and called on Americans to reduce it by doing everything from taking shorter showers and washing clothes at lower temperatures to banning fuel. to heat personal pools. The government has also imposed new energy consumption rules for giant buildings: unused common spaces, such as offices and corridors, for example, should not be heated.
The government promised to mitigate the impact on families by offering more budget to offset family energy expenses this winter, but warns consumers will see rates continue to rise. “It’s not clear exactly how much [gas] will charge in November, but the bad news is that it’s in fact a few hundred euros consistent with family,” Habeck said Thursday.
If a genuine shortage occurs this winter, the repercussions can be significant. Some apartments and buildings said they could restrict temperatures and hot water at certain times, and a German head of state advised sending college students home during a longer winter break to save energy. on campuses
And while the public continues to support the German army for Ukraine, which came after internal and external pressure, a full-blown power crisis this winter could replace public opinion. Marcel Dirsus, a non-resident researcher and foreign and German policy expert at the Institute for Security Policy at the University of Kiel, said the Germans temporarily joined in favor of Ukraine when war broke out, however, it is not uniform and cannot necessarily be taken for granted. have been developing fears that this audience is not sustainable in the long term,” he said.
A vote in mid-July via broadcaster ZDF found that 70% of Germans agree that Ukraine deserves to continue despite emerging energy prices. But when asked in particular about ArmyArray, only 35% said Germany deserves to do more, a figure that has fallen nine percentage points since the beginning of the month.
The scenario will be more than just Germans’ thermostats and wallets: it also has implications for the country’s ambitious energy transition plans. Rising coal production means the country, which is already struggling to meet its targets for 2030 and beyond, will possibly want to cut fossil fuels faster in the long run to stay on track.
Kemfert said the looming crisis deserves to be an opportunity for German leaders to make the complicated but long-needed adjustments to the country’s strength landscape, focusing on increasing its renewable energy resources rather than restarting coal-fired power plants and remaining dependent on fossil fuels.
“That would be my hope: that it would be a wake-up call, the last one, for a genuine transition to renewables,” he says. “And that we do not repeat the mistakes of the afterlife that brought us here. situation. “