Ukrainian Bayraktar TB-2 drones firing small guided missiles have wreaked havoc on Russian forces in Ukraine.
The Russians also fly armed unmanned aerial vehicles over Ukraine, and they are also casualties.
But there is a potentially important difference in scale. The Ukrainian Air Force and Navy can keep TB-2s in the air 24 hours a day. Russian forces, on the other hand, “conduct few Orion drone raids over Ukraine,” he tweeted. Samuel Bendett, Russian military expert at the Center for a New American Security in Washington, D. C.
Proof of this are the videos and images of Russian drones and their victims that have circulated on social networks in recent weeks. The Kremlin has released several drone videos illustrating successful movements in Ukrainian vehicles.
But several. Evidence of Ukrainian drone movements is much more abundant. Analysts on Oryx’s blog documented about 60 deaths through TB-2, but six through Orion.
At the same time, there is photographic evidence that the Ukrainians shot down at least one of the Russian killer drones. Yes, the Russians shot down at least 3 TB-2s, but the Ukrainians may lose more drones.
The Turkish-made TB-2 is a 1400-pound propeller drone with a wingspan of 39 feet, a sensor gimbal with a laser designator, and pylons on the wings for 14-pound MAM missiles.
Directed via satellite or direct-view radio, a TB-2 can patrol for 24 hours, track enemy forces, designate targets for laser-guided artillery shells, and fire tanks and cars with its own ammunition.
The closest Russian analogue is the Kronstadt Orion. Five feet from wing to wing, the One-ton Orion propeller has roughly the same sensors as a TB-2 and Kornet guided missiles that are similar to the MAM, but the first-generation drone lacks satellite communications.
This means that a first-generation Orion will move more than a few hundred miles away from its operators. The new Orions have SATCOM, but it’s unclear that Kronstadt has already delivered any of those improved cells.
Possible scope limitations did not prevent the Russians from deploying Orion in Ukraine. The videos verify that Orion shot down at least 3 Ukrainian cars in separate attacks starting in mid-March.
And then the Ukrainians retaliated. On Friday, images on social media gave the impression that the remains of an Orion obviously appeared. The loss of only one of the drones is “significant,” according to Bendett, because prior to this loss, Orion’s entire Russian fleet had only about thirty cells.
It is true that Ukraine only had 20 TB-2 in the existing war. But Kiev has continued to source new cells and Bayraktar has no challenge in maintaining production. Kronstadt, on the other hand, could struggle to meet Russian demand for new Orions, due to Russia’s long-standing challenges with sourcing high-tech components.
Most likely, the new Western sanctions will only exacerbate shortages. So, yes, there are separate and competing drone campaigns taking a stand in the sky over Ukraine. But Kiev is sustainable. Russia. . . a lot.