The right of a pro-Ukrainian British minister to attack targets in Russia has been condemned by Moscow and has generated hypotheses about what Vladimir Putin might do if the war were to cross the border.
British Armed Forces Minister James Heappey said it is “totally legitimate” for Ukraine to reach logistical targets in Russia, prompting Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova to ask whether Moscow can do the same with NATO countries supplying arms to Kiev.
“Direct provocation from London,” Zakharova warned, “will lead to our proportionate response. “
Heappey’s comments come as Russian regions near the Border with Ukraine have reported unexplained explosions at military and commercial sites.
They point to a shadow war imaginable by Ukraine beyond enemy lines in which Kiev is low-key, but which experts told Newsweek could be used through Moscow to justify a large mobilization of the Russian population.
Russian air defenses reportedly repelled an attack on an army airbase in the Voronezh region on Wednesday and a small reconnaissance drone shot down over the city about 220 km inside the border with Ukraine.
Explosions were heard in Kursk, with a video posted on social media purportedly showing the explosions. Meanwhile, two oil depots in the southwestern city of Bryansk were hit by Ukrainian missiles on Monday, while an ammunition depot set fire near the village of Staraya. Nelidovka in the Belgorod region.
“The logistical targets of ukrainians inside Russia, power targets, ammunition depots and other infrastructure used for war, are valid targets,” said Samuel Ramani, a research associate at the London-based Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) think tank.
“And similarly, Russia is hitting Ukraine’s military infrastructure with relative impunity, so it’s a tug-of-war,” he told Newsweek.
Ramani said the kind of proportional reaction Zakharova talks about could affect only the Ukrainian capital and “bomb Kiev’s internal decision-making centers. “
“This is not a new risk, it is precisely the same risk they posed to Ukrainians after the sinking of the Moskva,” he added, referring to the Russian flagship that Ukraine said it had attacked with Neptune missiles in the Black Sea on April 13. , Moscow says the ship sank after a chimney detonated ammunition.
Ramani said the missile attack in the Ukrainian capital on Thursday while U. N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres was in the city “indicates the kind of moves they are making. “
“They made those moves periodically, the only explanation for why it attracted so much attention is that it’s a wake-up call for foreign diplomats not to stop in the capital. “
It is not known how many Kiev incidents have violated Russian territory, but Radio Free Europe has reported an estimate of at least a dozen since the war began on February 24.
Glen Grant, a senior defense expert at the Baltic Security Foundation think tank that urged Ukraine to reform its military, said it’s unclear that Ukraine is striking Russian targets, however, the incidents are crucial.
“They [Ukraine] haven’t shown much evidence of their ability to deeply attack Russia since the early days of the war,” he told Newsweek.
However, he said such moves help Ukraine because “anything that burns fuel or ammunition and reduces the formula’s combat effectiveness will somehow have to be useful in the long run. “
“If it’s the Ukrainians, I’m not sure [in the establishment of the Russian military] they tell Putin that this is collapsing because it would be like saying ‘we’re failing,'” Grant said.
“The big question is whether some of them are made through Russians to provoke mobilization. “
Such a move could be announced by Putin at a Victory Day parade on May 9 marking the Soviet role in the end of World War II, British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said Friday.
And while Ukraine has denied Russian accusations that it is bombing Russian checkpoints and targets across the border, Moscow can use those accusations to paint Kiev as the aggressor, which is useful if it seeks to call the reservists.
“The Russians will interpret them as an escalation if they feel it is necessary and use them as pretexts even if there is no evidence of a Ukrainian attack,” Ramani said.
“This will be used for propaganda purposes to highlight the reasons for the continuation of the war and also to have a line that justifies a more complete mobilization or recruitment of Russian society. “