Russian officials have made veiled nuclear risks against the United States and NATO in the recent past, but doing so while Russia undertakes a major invasion of Ukraine’s nonviolent cities and temporarily fails to achieve the military victories putin seemed certain of, makes its risks more significant. And the new nuclear alert risk means that Russian nuclear weapons are more in a position to be used at the right time.
UKRAINIAN HEROISM SHOULD INSPIRE U. S. ALLIES TO ACT AGAINST PUTIN
This moment demands the sobriety, calmness, and humility of the United States and its allies. It is a mistake to sweep away those threats as if we know for sure that Putin is lying.
Putin is fundamentally suspicious of the United States and our allies. That’s why Putin has ignored the Biden administration’s statements about gun control measures and transparency of U. S. defensive military sites. Such moves do not appease Putin’s paranoia or satisfy his true goals. And now, given the enormity of the pain of sanctions against Russia, it is conceivable that Putin now thinks that even his reign is at stake.
Putin’s recent speeches add to the long record of evidence that many Western academics and governments struggle to take seriously: he believes he has the right to invade sovereign nations to peoples founded on their ethnicity and traditions. That is why Western attention to the question of the long-term expansion of the NATO alliance overlooks Putin’s much broader and, indeed, imperialist goals.
This is the time to show weakness and simply give in to Putin’s demands over concerns of a maximum Russian nuclear attack.
The fact that the Biden administration does not appreciate Putin’s goals at this point causes U. S. officials to heed the recommendation of military leaders such as the commander of U. S. Strategic Command. Admiral Charles Richard warned that he opposes the expansion of Russia’s nuclear weapons. Now is the momento. es time to re-examine the assumptions of Biden officials about Putin, the pivotal role of U. S. nuclear deterrence. And do a much more lucid threat assessment before reacting.
This is not the time to show weakness and simply give in to Putin’s demands over concerns of a maximum Russian nuclear attack. This would almost ensure additional Russian aggression and signal to other revanchist nations like China that nuclear threats are working. to try to force Putin to avoid his aggression and dissuade him from escalating the stage to the point of crossing the nuclear threshold.
Russia has a large nuclear arsenal, but the type of nuclear weapons and how Russia might use them is important. Many Americans were promptly frightened at the thought of a landing of Russian nuclear weapons in an American city. of the nuclear risk that Putin is making right now.
Russia has invested in thousands of shorter-range, lower-yield nuclear weapons that are absolutely treaty-free and could eventually use in theater. By threatening any kind of nuclear use, Putin might think it gives him more leeway to hit Ukraine at the traditional level, even if he does so with greater brutality and with more civilian casualties.
And if he starts losing, he would possibly use one of those theater nuclear cannons in Ukraine or maybe even opposed to a NATO best friend in the hope that Ukraine will call for peace without delay, and that the United States and our allies would be Russia’s targets instead of retaliating with nuclear weapons and threatening to further aggravate the horrible war?
The United States will have to convince Putin that if he does this, we will not back down and call for peace. If Putin radically adjusts the nature of this war, whether by leaving the traditional realm or threatening a NATO country with official commitments, the United States, in combination with NATO, reserves the right and has the credible ability to retaliate in such cases. A serious way for Putin to regret his decision.
To put it more literally: we also have theater nuclear weapons and they had more than we are fit and willing to use them in our defense. By credibly communicating our resolve, we are more likely to deter Putin.
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We can do this by organizing large U. S. -led NATO military trainings. USA Now, adding nuclear delivery systems, along with the release of official Pentagon statements that we have the determination and dedication. proceed with and adapt our nuclear deterrence.
We see in real time the valid goal of American nuclear weapons: to deter unjust aggression opposed to important American interests and to maintain peace. We want to make that clear.
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Rebeccah Heinrichs is a fellow at the Hudson Institute, where she provides studies and observations on a variety of safety issues and specializes in missile defense and nuclear deterrence. Follow her on Twitter, @RLHeinrichs.