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A Ukrainian soldier gives his thumbs up on an army vehicle before an attack in the Luhansk region on February 26, 2022. On February 26, Russia ordered its troops to advance into Ukraine “in all directions” when the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, imposed a curfew and the government reported 198 civilian deaths.
A Ukrainian soldier gives his thumbs up on an army vehicle before an attack in the Luhansk region on February 26, 2022. On February 26, Russia ordered its troops to advance into Ukraine “in all directions” when the Ukrainian capital, Kiev, imposed a curfew and the government reported 198 civilian deaths.
“The price of boots on the floor [when it comes to intelligence] is that you have a ‘finger feeling’ of what’s going on,” Amenta, co-author of The Twenty-Year War, said in an interview with The Daily. Beast. Such data provides U. S. military observers with such data. UU. ” An idea of the population and the area of war and makes it possible to assess the situation, almost in real time, and see what is going on with the Russians and Ukrainians to help the commanders’ plan. “
Amenta’s co-author, Dan Blakely, a former Ranger, agreed that having local operators to obtain data would be invaluable in the Ukraine conflict.
“Not only do you get real-time HUMINT (human intelligence) from what the Russians are doing, but you can also get a genuine taste of the Ukrainian military’s uninterrupted functions [and] be informed of the weaknesses and functions of our enemies” by adding “the weapons, vehicles, planes, tactics, and troop sets they use. “
Blakely added that such data is important for generating “future strategic plans if the United States and NATO allies get involved. “
When it comes to uniting HUMINT, an option for elite U. S. forces. UU. es the use of Special Operations Groups (SOGs). forces infantrymen such as green berets or Delta Force commandos. To avoid detection, SOGs can infiltrate local populations.
“These men and women are incredibly skilled at integrating into environments, gathering intelligence and also working with assistance advisers [and] helping the local armed forces,” Amenta said.
Because secrecy is of paramount importance, SOGs running in Ukraine would likely be limited to a few officials in each unit. and thinking strategically are the ones who succeed here. “
But not everyone is in favor of SOGs in Ukraine.
Dr. Robert J. Bunker, director of security consulting firms c/o Futures LLC, said the threat that a SOG or NATO team could be killed or captured, and tied up to their home country, means the threat far outweighs the reward. .
Putting U. S. intelligence agents into the world. The U. S. on the floor in any capacity is simply not a “viable option,” Bunker said. they need NATO or U. S. forces toThe U. S. and Russian forces come into direct contact with others. “
Lieutenant Colonel (retired) Hal Kempfer, who served as an intelligence officer for the U. S. Marine Corps. In the U. S. , he said it is “very possible” that the U. S. will be able to do so. The U. S. has spies in Ukraine. But Kempfer also said a safer option to avoid an escalation would be to use Ukrainian citizens to collect important HUMINT data and pass it on to their counterparts in the US. US and NATO.
Ukrainian infantrymen look out of a damaged window at an army installation, after an explosion in Kiev, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022.
“We don’t want to have [U. S. spies]. “The U. S. or NATO on the ground] because we can deal directly with Ukrainian forces, many of which we have trained and trained at a point where they can provide a superintelligence capability,” Kempfer said. .
“They essentially mobilized the entire nation. You have the federal police [mobilized]. They are smart to observe and report. And to avoid being detected while doing so. Many of them can simply wear civilian clothes and gather information,” he added.
Even if the US special forces have not entered the Ukrainian territory, this does not mean that they will not play a fundamental role. One of its most important purposes is possibly to train Ukrainian infantrymen or ordinary citizens in the guerrilla tactics they would like to resist. the profession of his homeland. Such tactics were contracted through mujahideen fighters in the Soviet-Afghan war of the late 20th century, tactics that ultimately forced the Soviets to withdraw.
On Friday, the BBC reported that at least 18,000 attack rifles had been distributed to Kievan citizens, and the foreign network is full of hypotheses that the clash could turn into a protracted anti-Russian insurgency.
This is partly because Ukraine is almost the length of Texas, with a population of about 43 million. About 70 percent of the population is concentrated in urban areas, which means that: “We can imagine house-to-house fighting in which tens of thousands of armed defenders face invading forces,” said research director Bunker.
In the event that major cities are pacified by Russian forces, a phase of profession would begin in which “Ukrainian civilians and relatives of rebel fighters” would be attacked, Bunker said. “With the brutality of such a profession, it would begin to strain the Russian economy to logistically help the deployed force. “
Former ranger Amenta agreed with Bunker that Russian forces may be bogged down in a possible quagmire. “Once you take the territory, you are no longer the aggressor. [So] you’re in static positions that limit your freedom of movement, and you’re a less complicated target,” Amenta said. “And two hundred thousand Russian infantrymen in front of another 43 million people who don’t like you, it’s a difficult thing to achieve. “
In the event of a protracted insurgency that may turn into a war of attrition, the U. S. will most likely be able to carry out a war of attrition. The U. S. and NATO see it in their own interest to provide education and ammunition to partisan fighters, in the same way as the U. S. The U. S. Waged The Nazi War in Europe. Occupation.
When asked, a senior U. S. defense official said. The U. S. told The Daily Beast that the U. S. I would not rule out the education of Ukrainians. ” We will continue to pursue tactics for the Ukrainian armed forces and help them protect their country,” they said.
Former Navy Colonel Kempfer, who cited similar U. S. -led efforts in Iraq and Afghanistan, described the education of the host country’s workers’ corps as “a classic army special forces project. “butter. “
“They would teach [Ukrainian partisans] how to use things like Stinger anti-aircraft missiles and javelin anti-tank guns to slow down Russian tanks and helicopters. They would also teach them ambush and guerrilla techniques, especially things that can destabilize or slow down the Russian movement and, if they were looking to retain territory, make it very difficult.
A primary query may also be where this education would take place. If U. S. forces are not allowed to enter occupied Ukraine, close NATO allies such as Poland and Romania would appear to be possible candidates. Troops arrived in both countries this week to help protect themselves from possible Russian incursions, meaning the body of workers needed to set up guerrilla schools would already be in place.
A Ukrainian soldier smokes a cigarette in his position in an armored vehicle outside Kharkiv, Ukraine, Saturday, Feb. 26, 2022. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Saturday that Ukrainian forces had repelled the attack and vowed to keep fighting. he’s going to win,” Zelenskyy said.
The challenge with the education camp base in NATO countries, Kempfer said, is that the Kremlin can see it simply as competitive interference in its sphere of influence.
“If you exercise supporters in Romania or Poland and then they go back to Ukraine [to have interaction with Russian forces], how would Putin see that?The political volatility of this must be taken into account.
Kempfer pointed to Putin’s background in the KGB and his tendency to be ruthlessly vindictive in the face of any perceived threat.
“This is the one who used a nerve agent to murder dissidents on British soil. . . My fear would be that if we take [the partisans] to a NATO country, Putin might take some kind of open military action opposed to that NATO country and that would cause a huge escalation. The other fear is that I would use covert means opposed to this country to destabilize the stage in and around where we are training. It’s all in your bag.
Kempfer said one solution may simply be the use of virtual or online training. “From an operational threat perspective, this is the safest thing we can do,” he said.
Kempfer also raised the option that many members of the Ukrainian diaspora in the United States and Western Europe feel compelled to return to their home countries to take up arms.
“I am firmly convinced that this is going to happen,” Kempfer said, and also discussed that such an influx of volunteer foreign fighters may cause Putin to unfairly claim planned interference from the United States or NATO.
“There’s the truth and then there’s everything Russia needs to say,” Kempfer said. “It’s all a laugh and a laugh until a nuclear bomb goes down. “
Shannon Vavra contributed to this story.
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