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The United States added 1.37 million jobs in August.White House National Economic Council Chief Economist Joe LaVorgna joins the On the Move panel to discuss.
ADAM SHAPIRO: Part of that has to do with task numbers, and no matter how you look at them, this task report contained a lot of smart things.1.4 million tasks created approximately, with the unemployment rate desinging.But then the parties to the conflict would, say the number of lost tasks remains at about 11.5 million other people who aren’t working, which is below prepandymic levels.So, to break it all down for us, we invite in joe LaVorgna’s feed, he’s the leading economist of the White House National Economic Council.
It’s smart to have you moving here. And I’m going to give you the score, I mean, it’s a smart report.But we have a lot of questions for you, what do you think we want to get out of this report?
JOE LAVORGNA: What we want to take is the fact that the economy is in a Super V-shaped recovery, as described by the president.We’re not done yet. We want much more, we want many more paintings, many more paintings to make to further reduce this rate, but the economy has returned much faster than the parties to the conflict thought.
In fact, there were many official and personal estimates that only saw the unemployment rate at 10% or even below until the end of next year and here we are, thanks to the president’s policy and the indomitable positive spirit, which brings us back much faster.than we expected, and we are firmly convinced that these trfinish will continue and continue next year and beyond, as long as the president’s policies remain.
RICK NEWMAN: Hi Joe, this is Rick Newman.One of the things many economists expect over the next two months is, first of all, a continuous slowdown in hiring speed, which we’ve noticed over the past 3 months, as well as job losses in state and local governments., you will simply run out of money. So, of course, it’s about the stimulus bill.Do you think there’s much more help for state and local governments?
JOE LAVORGNA: So the president said that, you know, he’s willing to help states, especially with regard to the pandemic, but if it relates to irresponsible fiscal policy, it’s a separate issue.Let me upload what other people are saying.that the employment figures want to slow down, people were surprised by the number of jobs created, I mean yes, as I said, we still have a lot to do, but in essence we have recovered some of the jobs we lost..
At some point, of course, the numbers will slow down, i.e. things are going to grow at a rapid rate perpetually, but when we look at the fact that home sales are at their highest point in almost 14 years, we have the highest reading of retail sales.They have now increased by 9% since the beginning of the year.We see that cars complement the rise of housing.We’ve noticed a very clever production knowledge this week.
All this suggests that the economy is enjoying a sustainable recovery that will endure, as long as the right policies are implemented.And not in the fact that yes, expansion rates will inevitably slow down, although it is questionable whether we are still close to that.
Let me raise that the explanation for why the unemployment rate fell to 8.4, much less than other people thought, is because family employment has been higher by 3.8 million, so it must be emphasized.And, of course, unfortunately, other people are looking to locate the negatives, while I would say it’s an incredibly positive report.
– You know, you use the term super V recovery, and this week we were made aware that there is a V-shaped recovery in the world as well as in the US.But it’s not the first time With the manufacturing. But what you told us last time at Yahoo Finance is that if the president’s policies remain in place, we may only have a 5% expansion next year.And yet the expansion of GDP before the pandemic, never on an annual basis, exceeded 3%.Why so positive about next year?
JOE LAVORGNA: Part of that is to recover the lost ground, but the other story, which unfortunately fell apart due to the pandemic is the fact that what we started to see at the end of last year an acceleration of productivity growth.
Productivity expansion was accelerating and we were positive at the time, at the beginning of the year, that we would see a 3% expansion, which we hadn’t done in about 14 years, so the trends were there, and I would say that it largely reflects the fact that when you cut taxes and propose business-friendly policies to create smart jobs for people , and uncontrolled cautiously, time is needed for these policies.
So, you know, in the best world, you can’t produce the counterfactual, we would have had a 3% expansion this year and I would say we would have that kind of figure next year. And that those policies have continued is the explanation why we can see an expansion of 5% or even 6%. And those are not my numbers, by the way. I mean, there are other well known retail outlets consistent with the sonal sector that are looking for an expansion of between five consistent with 100 hundred consistent with pennies and 6 consistent with pennies, and that’s a figure that I think we haven’t noticed since. 1983 if that happens. .
– I need to go back to everything you told Rick too, about the fact that the president does not oppose the recovery of the states that are going through this terrible era of our history, but also their irresponsible spending.You do that? Because, for example, the state of Kentucky has been irresponsible with its retirement program.So how does the federal government ensure that if there are certain stimulus measures for a state like Kentucky and New York, how can you ensure that cash is being transferred to What do you need to pass?
JOE LAVORGNA: What I can tell you is that in the plan that Secretary Mnuchin and Meadows’ chief of staff were executing, we were giving $105 billion in insurance against the pandemic that went on to move to various states to help with the PPE, testing, all sorts of prudent security protocols, and that was about five billion more than the Democrats had wanted.
Then we’d like a plan. But we have done much to evolve towards a very judicious whole, but if our colleagues on the other side of the aisle do not need to do so, that is all that remains to be seen, but I am not aware of those negotiations.out of the doors my way. We’d like anything to be done.We’ll see if it’s done. In the absence of that, I am still very sure of myself, we are sure that these figures will remain very strong.
RICK NEWMAN: Joe, Trump’s re-election crusade lists it as one of his purposes for a period of time to create 10 million jobs in 10 months.Now, I realize you’re with the Trump administration in the White House, you’re not on the re-election crusade, yet I wonder if you have a White House investigation of the 10 million jobs, you know, is there such a purpose or perspective like that, and if that’s the case, we’d still go under the number of jobs we had before the pandemic , so $10 million would return us to employment levels just below those in February.Anything I can say about it?
JOE LAVORGNA: Well, here’s what I’d say. Again, to put it in context, we’ve generated nearly 11 million jobs since April, or if you take a look at non-agricultural jobs, if you take a look at family data, that’s about 14 million jobs.I’ve done a lot of things in no time. And if we don’t promise too much and do too much, it’s even better.I think other people would like to see a million jobs a month over the next 10 months.you’re going to see what happens.
But again, I think we want to take a look at the remarkable fact, the improvement and the recovery that we have achieved in such a short time, even since the last time I was with you, and I think that is vital. And this is a day for me where I think everyone celebrates the unit numbers. It’s a smart day for America. These are smart results. Let’s put partisanship aside and celebrate, at least one day at least, or at least this holiday weekend, which is a very important weekend, smart news for a change.
ADAM SHAPIRO: There was also good news, I’ll use the smart term.Treasury Secretary Steve Mnuchin and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi allegedly reached an agreement for a short-term interim measure to avoid government closures later this month.Does it mean for the future, at least for the economy, is it going to have that impact?
JOE LAVORGNA: We’ve faced continuous resolutions several times before, and my past position in the markets was that investors and others in the personal sector aren’t concerned about the daily machinations of continuous resolution, so I don’t think so.it’s going to be a big challenge for other people, at least outdoors, the device.
ADAM SHAPIRO: Understood, Joe LaVorgna is the lead economist for the White House National Economic Council. It’s great to have you here on the go. Thank you very much.
JOE LAVORGNA: It’s great to be with you. Thank you guys, thank you.