Filipino President Rodrigo Duterte likes to present himself as the world’s ultimate strongman, a leader who doesn’t simply defeat his opponents but publicly humiliates them. The narrative is an inversion of reality.
When it comes to communist China, the greatest opponent facing the Philippines, Duterte is a happy lapdog. Evincing as much, Duterte’s defense secretary announced on Tuesday that the navy of the Philippines will no longer participate in any South China Sea military exercises outside its 12-mile sovereign maritime borders. Delfin Lorenzana justified the decision by saying that “if one country’s action is considered belligerent by another, tension will normally rise.”
But it’s not about keeping tensions low. Rather, it is another attempt through Duterte to be congratulated by Chinese President Xi Jinping. And wow, a 12-mile restriction on naval training deserves such a pat. This restriction means that Duterte has necessarily turned the Philippine army into a beach patrol.
China has put a lot of pressure on the Philippines, a classic U.S. ally, to participate in the escalation of U.S. army training. In the South China Sea. Frustrated by the growing willingness of other allies to participate in such trainings, Beijing fears the unveiling of a foreign alliance that destroys Xi’s statement that China seeks only mutual respect. It is very likely that Xi has presented Duterte with some kind of primary investment agreement or other favor in exchange for advertisements like this.
Anyway, what Duterte is doing here is pathetic and, from the Point of View of the Philippines, absolutely idiotic. China actively flies to the maximum of the South China Sea. Xi needs complete control over energy and fishery resources and transit routes in those waters. Such control would allow the Chinese economy to allow Beijing to draw political deference from all nations seeking to transit through those waters. This is feudalism 101: the extraction of loyalty in exchange for the right to paint the land (or, in this case, water). And it is a preview of the global order that China, however, intends to impose.
By preferring the undisputed patronage of Chinese Communists to a democratic alliance with the United States, Duterte is the grass-based best friend of this feudalism. The strongman is willing to sacrifice his national interests for Xi’s non-public favor. Until the next election in 2022, we don’t expect much change. Duterte will continue to seek the pat on Xi’s head, and his country will be worse off.